Rand weakens during SONA address

08 February 2019

Rand weakens during SONA address

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Market commentary

	South Africa The JSE closed in the red on Thursday, amid risk-off trade on global markets. The All Share fell 1.26%.
	United States US shares extended losses on Thursday after a CNBC report said a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was “highly unlikely” to take place by a key March deadline, set by the two countries for reaching a trade deal.
	Europe The pound firmed a little after the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy announcement yesterday. The BoE left interest rates unchanged, with analysts citing an upbeat assessment of the country’s economic prospects as a reason for sterling strength.
	Hong Kong Mainland Chinese markets are shut for the week for the Lunar New Year holiday.
	Japan Japanese stocks fell on Thursday due to concerns about slowing corporate earnings growth. The Nikkei share average dropped 0.59%.
	Rand The rand weakened during President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation (SONA) address last night. The rand was at R13.60/$ from Wednesday’s R13.54 just after the JSE closed. At 19h20 the rand weakened to R13.65/$.
	Precious metals Gold was lower on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger dollar, but uncertainties around the Sino-US trade spat and concerns about slowing global growth supported the metal. At 19h20 spot gold traded at $1 306.60 an ounce.
	Oil Oil steadied on Thursday as growing expectations that global supply could fall significantly short of demand this year. At 19h25 a barrel of Brent crude traded at $60.63 a barrel.

Market indicators

Local markets (R)
Index	Current level	1 Day move	1 Month move	3 Month move	6 Month move	1 Year move
ALSI	53 888.85	- 1.26	3.82	- 1.11	- 5.03	- 2.21
Gold mining	1 454.96	0.21	3.89	30.63	37.77	24.79
Basic minerals	30 212.09	- 0.28	6.84	4.48	6.01	23.71
Industrial index	70 447.68	- 1.69	2.41	- 3.33	- 13.01	- 12.31
Financial	42 678.98	- 1.41	3.59	- 2.18	1.36	- 2.33
Fin + Ind 30	7 329.59	- 1.59	2.83	- 2.92	- 8.38	- 9.01
International markets (Base currency)
Index	Current level	1 Day move	1 Month move	3 Month move	6 Month move	1 Year move
Dow Jones (USD)	25 169.53	- 0.77	7.15	- 3.18	- 0.57	3.53
S&P 500 PR (USD)	2 706.05	- 0.92	6.29	- 3.29	- 4.35	2.94
NASDAQ (USD)	7 288.93	- 0.34	9.49	0.28	- 5.64	4.77
FT-100 (GBP)	7 093.58	- 1.10	4.20	0.31	- 6.39	1.63
Hang Seng (HKD)	27 990.21	0.21	9.25	5.84	2.20	- 11.09
Nikkei 225 (JPY)	20 751.28	- 0.59	3.56	- 5.84	- 7.51	- 2.18
Paris CAC (EUR)	4 985.56	- 1.84	5.68	- 2.73	- 9.34	- 2.93
Frankfurt (EUR)	5 198.09	- 2.67	2.55	- 4.81	- 12.86	- 12.46
Other markets
Index	Current level	1 Day move	1 Month move	3 Month move	6 Month move	1 Year move
Gold ($)	1 306.60	- 0.51	1.17	5.79	7.50	- 1.65
Platinum ($)	815.00	- 0.61	1.75	- 6.21	- 2.04	- 18.17
Brent Oil ($)	61.63	- 1.69	7.50	- 14.49	- 17.44	- 5.92
Rand/USD	13.65	-0.71	2.11	4.49	0.22	-13.15
Rand/GBP	17.68	-0.88	0.44	4.32	-0.70	-5.63
Rand/EUR	15.48	-0.57	3.06	4.33	1.83	-4.71
ALBI (R)	650.42	0.00	1.50	4.71	4.66	7.84

^{Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest available information
Performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month}

Economic calendar

Local	International
No economic data scheduled for release	Japan: Eco Watchers survey US: Baker Hughes oil rig count

^{Source: Reuters, Business Day, Trading Economics}

PSG Product Matrix

Fund matrix

PSG Wealth Solutions
Fund	6 Month move	1 Year move	2 Year move	3 Year move	4 Year move	5 Year move
PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest D	3.99	7.96	8.04	8.07	7.77	7.44
PSG Wealth Income FoF D	3.79	8.20	7.99	8.33	8.05	8.25
PSG Wealth Preserver FoF D	0.85	5.45	5.69	5.85	6.34	7.46
PSG Wealth Moderate FoF D	- 1.69	2.79	4.50	5.36	5.33	7.05
PSG Wealth Creator FoF D	- 2.49	0.35	2.99	6.03	3.52	6.00
PSG Wealth Global Moderate FF D	- 2.37	7.46	4.66	0.93	6.39	6.52
PSG Wealth Global Creator FF D	- 3.30	10.13	11.21	6.03	11.89	-
PSG Wealth Solutions ($)
Fund	6 Month move	1 Year move	2 Year move	3 Year move	4 Year move	5 Year move
PSG Wealth Global Moderate FoF D	- 2.64	- 2.99	3.85	6.50	1.85	2.46
PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF D	- 3.19	1.36	10.31	11.91	7.04	7.49
PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (USD) D	0.55	0.83	3.43	6.12	3.42	3.75
PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (USD) D	- 0.86	2.80	10.10	12.04	7.50	7.29
PSG Wealth Solutions (£)
Fund	6 Month move	1 Year move	2 Year move	3 Year move	4 Year move	5 Year move
PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (GBP) D	0.08	5.99	2.68	8.90	6.22	6.98
PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (GBP) D	- 0.78	9.05	7.83	14.94	10.12	11.51
PSG Asset Management
Fund	6 Month move	1 Year move	2 Year move	3 Year move	4 Year move	5 Year move
PSG Money Market A	3.60	7.29	7.42	7.43	7.20	6.96
PSG Income A	4.07	8.16	8.43	8.45	7.99	7.75
PSG Diversified Income	3.06	7.20	7.77	7.95	7.92	7.71
PSG Stable A	0.84	4.54	5.84	7.24	6.90	7.17
PSG Balanced A	- 2.14	1.30	3.80	7.24	6.08	7.44
PSG Flexible A	- 1.20	1.71	3.51	8.49	7.10	8.42
PSG SA Equity D	- 3.11	- 6.83	- 0.83	9.03	-	-
PSG Equity A	- 3.00	- 2.04	1.04	9.51	4.61	6.66
PSG Global Flexible FF A	- 2.87	6.87	3.87	5.32	7.94	-
PSG Global Equity FF A	- 3.70	6.74	4.95	7.28	7.95	7.90
PSG Asset Management ($)
Fund	6 Month move	1 Year move	2 Year move	3 Year move	4 Year move	5 Year move
PSG Global Flexible USD A	- 3.11	- 3.91	3.14	11.75	3.69	3.76
PSG Global Equity USD	- 3.84	- 3.97	4.20	13.64	3.87	3.92
PSG Direct Portfolios
Fund	6 Month move	1 Year move	2 Year move	3 Year move	4 Year move	5 Year move
PSG Direct Flexible Income	3.41	7.22	7.58	7.66	7.39	7.16
PSG Direct Low Equity	0.36	3.83	5.27	6.90	6.44	6.86
PSG Direct Managed	- 2.13	0.94	3.26	7.07	5.86	7.19
PSG Direct Aggressive	- 2.21	1.38	2.55	7.82	6.29	-
PSG Direct Global Managed	- 3.09	6.38	3.39	4.84	7.45	-
PSG Direct Global Aggressive	- 3.60	6.31	4.08	6.07	7.47	-

^{The PSG Wealth Solutions are exclusively available through registered PSG planners and/or advisers
The above information reflects the latest available data at time of distribution, as such product performance data reflects T-2 numbers
Performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month
The PSG Best Ideas Portfolios were renamed to the PSG Direct Portfolios in February 2018}

Equity portfolio matrix

PSG Wealth Equity Portfolios
Portfolio	6 Month move	1 Year move	2 Year move	3 Year move	4 Year move	5 Year move
PSG Wealth SA Equity Portfolio	-3.71	-3.38	2.13	6.34	-	-
PSG Wealth SA Property Equity Portfolio	0.84	0.50	-0.59	-0.54	-	-
PSG Wealth SA Dividend Income Equity Portfolio	-2.70	-3.90	6.10	-	-	-
PSG Wealth Offshore Equity Portfolio (USD)	-0.46	2.87	15.02	15.06	-	-
PSG Wealth Managed Volatility Equity Portfolio	-6.54	-9.06	-2.13	-	-	-

^{The PSG Wealth equity portfolios are exclusively available through registered PSG planners and/or advisers
PSG Wealth equity portfolio performance are shown gross of management fees, but net of brokerage and other trading costs
PSG Wealth SA and Offshore Equity Portfolio Inception date: 30 August 2015
PSG Wealth SA Listed Property Portfolio Inception date: 1 December 2015
PSG Wealth Dividend Income Equity Portfolio Inception date: 29 April 2016
PSG Wealth Managed Volatility Equity Portfolio Inception date: 28 July 2016
PSG Wealth Funds are exclusively available through registered PSG planners and/or advisers}

Recent trade ideas

Highlights

The share code is VOD LN and our recommendation is 0%.
Management expects growth of 3% in FY19 in adjusted organic earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
An adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, and amortisation (EBITA) range of EUR 14.3 billion to EUR 14.5 billion for the year is expected.
Organic service revenue is anticipated to be slightly higher, and absolute adjusted EBITDA is likely to be lower due to the elimination of the impact of the UK handset financing.
The group aims to reduce operating expenses in Europe and common functions by at least EUR 1.2 billion by FY21.

Highlights

The share code is VOW GR and our recommendation is up to 0.30%.
Growth was due to a 6% increase in oil production to 8 634 million barrels oil equivalent per day (MBOED) and an increase in the average West Texas oil price of 31% from an average of $51 per barrel for nine months in 2017 to $67 per barrel in 2018.
This increase is due to improvements in volume, mix and the good performance of the financial services division, which were partially offset by exchange rate factors.
Operating profit before special items rose slightly to EUR 13.3 billion on the back of volume improvements.
Although fair value measurement gains and losses on certain derivatives and a lower capitalisation ratio for development costs had a negative impact, special items related to the diesel issue reduced operating profit.
The group’s operating profit was up to EUR 10.9 billion.

Highlights

The share code is CVX NYSE and the recommendation is up to 2.63%.
Revenue for the nine months ended September 2018 was up by 28% to $119 billion compared to the previous period.
This translated into an increase in EPS of 80% to $5.79 per share.
Dividend per share increased by 4% for the first nine months of 2018 to $3.36 per share.
Chevron repurchased shares to the value of $750 million in 2018.

Corporate actions

Date	Company	Share code	Expectation
13 February 2019	Ecsponent Ltd Fixed Rate NotesX2	ECSFX2	Interest Payment
13 February 2019	Ecsponent Ltd Fixed Rate NotesX3	ECSFX3	Interest Payment
13 February 2019	Hosken Passenger Logistics & Rail Limited	HPR	Cash Dividend
13 February 2019	Howden Africa Holdings Limited	HWN	General Offer
13 February 2019	Kaap Agri Limited	KAL	Cash Dividend
13 February 2019	Tharisa Plc	THA	Cash Dividend

^{The information above is to the best of our knowledge correct at the time of distribution but due to the nature thereof cannot be guaranteed.
This document only contains general information and not the opinion of the distributor.}

Rand weakens during SONA address

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08 February 2019