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ECB cuts 2019 growth forecast to 1.10% from 1.70%

08 March 2019

ECB cuts 2019 growth forecast to 1.10% from 1.70%

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Market commentary

SA flag Icon
South Africa

The local bourse slipped on Thursday afternoon on broad-based losses after a strengthened dollar put pressure on local banks and financials. At 18h30, the All Share lost 0.39%.

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United States

US shares traded lower on Thursday as investors expressed concerns over the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to resort to pump-priming loans for Eurozone banks in an attempt to stimulate an aligning Eurozone economy. At 18h45, the Dow had fallen 0.79%.

EU flag Icon
Europe

European shares dropped further away from its five-month crest on Thursday in a build up to the ECB’s policy meeting that subsequently cut growth forecasts and gravitated towards a round of cheap loans for eurozone banks. At 18h50, the pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.49%.

HK flag Icon
Hong Kong

Hong Kong stocks plunged on Thursday as investors expressed concerns over a decelerating global economy and the lack of fresh developments from the US-Sino trade talks. The Hang Seng ended the day 0.88% lower.

Japan flag Icon
Japan

The Nikkei fell to a one-week low on Thursday after chip-related shares in Japan shadowed a decline in their US counters, while banks pulled back following a drastic trim in Mizuho Financial Group’s profit and growth outlook. At 18h55, the Nikkei lost 0.71%.

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Rand

The rand weakened against major global currencies on Thursday as global markets digested the resolutions from the ECB’s policy meeting. At 19h00, the rand traded R14.50 against the dollar.

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Precious metals

Gold prices steadied on Thursday in anticipation of the long-awaited ECB policy meeting that subsequently trimmed growth forecasts for the Eurozone economy, while investors kept a close eye on US unemployment data. At 19h00, spot gold was trading at $1 284.82 an ounce.

Oil Icon
Oil

Oil prices went up on Thursday following Opec-led supply cuts and US sanctions against Venezuelan and Iranian exports, with gains trimmed by record US crude output and declining global demand. At 19h05, a barrel of Brent crude was trading at $66.18.


Market indicators

Local markets (R)
Index Current level 1 Day move 1 Month move 3 Month move 6 Month move 1 Year move
ALSI 55 857.89 - 0.39 3.92 9.94 - 0.75 - 2.21
Gold mining 1 503.25 - 2.19 3.32 25.15 47.56 32.61
Basic minerals 32 306.30 - 0.04 7.88 22.03 10.69 33.97
Industrial index 74 172.97 - 0.33 5.30 7.60 - 5.84 - 12.27
Financial 41 652.55 - 0.86 - 2.35 3.33 - 1.22 - 8.91
Fin + Ind 30 7 516.34 - 0.51 2.58 6.11 - 4.33 - 11.17
International markets (Base currency)
Index Current level 1 Day move 1 Month move 3 Month move 6 Month move 1 Year move
Dow Jones (USD) 25 468.07 - 0.52 1.47 3.46 - 0.14 5.57
S&P 500 PR (USD) 2 748.93 - 0.79 1.82 4.94 - 3.30 2.85
NASDAQ (USD) 7 421.46 - 1.11 1.98 6.79 - 5.56 1.45
FT-100 (GBP) 7 157.55 - 0.35 1.85 6.78 0.20 4.49
Hang Seng (HKD) 28 779.45 - 0.89 3.09 10.74 7.49 - 1.27
Nikkei 225 (JPY) 21 456.01 - 0.65 3.47 - 0.76 - 2.83 3.03
Paris CAC (EUR) 5 267.92 - 0.40 5.67 9.61 0.70 3.91
Frankfurt (EUR) 5 282.86 - 0.60 4.50 6.76 - 3.69 - 5.94
Other markets
Index Current level 1 Day move 1 Month move 3 Month move 6 Month move 1 Year move
Gold ($) 1 286.40 0.07 - 1.55 3.64 7.13 - 3.46
Platinum ($) 826.00 - 0.60 2.61 4.69 4.16 - 13.96
Brent Oil ($) 65.99 0.20 5.26 9.87 - 13.74 0.30
Rand/USD 14.52 -1.81 -8.31 -2.65 5.37 -22.63
Rand/GBP 19.01 -1.17 -9.48 -5.48 4.17 -15.47
Rand/EUR 16.25 -0.83 -6.37 -0.58 8.87 -10.66
ALBI (R) 653.39 0.23 0.46 4.70 7.47 4.84
  1. Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest available information
  2. Performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month


Economic calendar

Local International
  1. ZA: No economic data scheduled for release
  1. JP: GDP Growth Annualized Final Q4
  2. CH: Balance of Trade FEB

Source: Reuters, Business Day, Trading Economics


PSG Product Matrix

Fund matrix

PSG Wealth Solutions
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest D 3.93 7.95 8.04 8.10 7.81 7.47
PSG Wealth Income FoF D 3.32 7.56 7.83 8.36 7.99 8.17
PSG Wealth Preserver FoF D - 0.31 5.47 6.15 5.76 6.30 7.31
PSG Wealth Moderate FoF D - 2.84 2.98 5.55 5.03 5.35 6.90
PSG Wealth Creator FoF D - 2.62 - 1.15 4.45 5.18 3.52 5.54
PSG Wealth Global Moderate FF D - 7.66 19.06 8.56 2.43 6.77 7.90
PSG Wealth Global Creator FF D - 8.26 25.42 15.20 8.41 12.27 -
PSG Wealth Solutions ($)
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Wealth Global Moderate FoF D - 0.86 - 2.46 3.68 5.20 1.77 1.76
PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF D - 0.88 2.02 9.97 11.37 7.03 6.64
PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (USD) D 1.79 1.59 2.71 5.30 3.34 3.26
PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (USD) D 1.65 3.50 9.19 11.37 7.27 6.50
PSG Wealth Solutions (£)
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (GBP) D - 0.04 5.11 0.37 6.79 5.83 6.45
PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (GBP) D - 0.37 8.46 4.88 12.68 9.81 10.82
PSG Asset Management
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Money Market A 3.56 7.27 7.40 7.44 7.22 6.99
PSG Income A 4.25 7.96 8.36 8.52 8.04 7.79
PSG Diversified Income 2.84 6.09 7.48 7.89 7.80 7.65
PSG Stable A - 0.37 1.97 5.35 6.61 6.54 7.02
PSG Balanced A - 5.24 - 2.27 2.80 5.65 5.35 6.91
PSG Flexible A - 4.28 - 0.77 3.25 6.57 6.51 7.91
PSG SA Equity D - 6.19 - 14.18 - 3.29 5.25 - -
PSG Equity A - 7.06 - 6.15 0.21 6.86 3.57 5.73
PSG Global Flexible FF A - 8.50 15.96 6.95 5.25 7.82 -
PSG Global Equity FF A - 9.22 15.17 7.56 6.98 7.82 8.44
PSG Asset Management ($)
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Global Flexible USD A - 1.81 - 5.69 2.29 8.35 3.27 2.64
PSG Global Equity USD - 2.64 - 6.29 2.83 9.97 3.30 2.53
PSG Direct Portfolios
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Direct Flexible Income 3.42 6.70 7.44 7.68 7.37 7.16
PSG Direct Low Equity - 1.11 1.31 4.70 6.15 6.04 6.64
PSG Direct Managed - 5.21 - 2.34 2.44 5.40 5.16 6.68
PSG Direct Aggressive - 6.12 0.66 2.83 6.11 5.67 -
PSG Direct Global Managed - 8.71 15.43 6.46 4.77 7.33 -
PSG Direct Global Aggressive - 9.15 14.95 6.85 5.86 7.34 -
  1. The PSG Wealth Solutions are exclusively available through registered PSG planners and/or advisers
  2. The above information reflects the latest available data at time of distribution, as such product performance data reflects T-2 numbers
  3. Performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month
  4. The PSG Best Ideas Portfolios were renamed to the PSG Direct Portfolios in February 2018

Equity portfolio matrix

PSG Wealth House View Portfolios
Portfolio 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Wealth SA Equity Portfolio -2.88 -6.61 3.32 4.53 - -
PSG Wealth SA Property Equity Portfolio -4.26 -8.17 -3.57 -2.41 - -
PSG Wealth SA Dividend Income Equity Portfolio -3.93 -11.37 3.78 - - -
PSG Wealth Offshore Equity Portfolio (USD) 0.60 3.53 13.23 13.83 - -
PSG Wealth Managed Volatility Equity Portfolio -7.74 -10.11 -2.18 - - -
  1. The PSG Wealth equity portfolios are exclusively available through registered PSG planners and/or advisers
  2. PSG Wealth equity portfolio performance are shown gross of management fees, but net of brokerage and other trading costs
  3. PSG Wealth SA and Offshore Equity Portfolio Inception date: 30 August 2015
  4. PSG Wealth SA Listed Property Portfolio Inception date: 1 December 2015
  5. PSG Wealth Dividend Income Equity Portfolio Inception date: 29 April 2016
  6. PSG Wealth Managed Volatility Equity Portfolio Inception date: 28 July 2016
  7. PSG Wealth Funds are exclusively available through registered PSG planners and/or advisers


Recent investment ideas

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Highlights

  • The share code is JMP: NYSE and our recommendation is up to 4%.
  • Potential factors, which could enhance earnings in 2019, include regulatory changes in the way the supplementary leverage ratio is calculated for banks.
  • On the downside, risks include no additional US interest rate hikes, which could limit net interest income (NII) growth, and a faster deterioration in the economic cycle could lead to slower revenue growth and higher credit costs.
  • The group’s balance sheet remains strong, comfortably meeting all the Basel III requirements.


Corporate actions

Date Company Share code Expectation
13 March 2019 Anglo American Plc AGL DRIP
Option 1 - (Cash Dividend) Gross - ZAR7.20518Less 20% DWT - ZAR1.441036Net - ZAR5.764144
Option 2 (Reinvestment)Reinvestment Price - To be announced
Default - Option 1 (Cash)
13 March 2019 Adcock Ingram Holdings Limited AIP Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Assore Limited ASR Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Discovery Holdings Limited DSY Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Golf Fields Limited GFI Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Kumba Iron Ore Limited KIO Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Liberty two Degrees L2D Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 London Finance and Investment Group Plc LNF Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Royal Bafokeng Platinum Limited - Convertible Bonds RBPCB Interest Payment
13 March 2019 Shoprite Holdings Limited SHP Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Sasol Limited SOL Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Sasol BEE Ordinary Shares SOLBE1 Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Tradehold Limited TDH Odd-Lot Offer
Option 1 (Sell holdings less than 100 shares) (subject to 20% DWT)
Gross Offer Price - To be announced
Option 2 - (Retain Odd-lot Holdings)
Default - Option 1
13 March 2019 Tradehold Limited TDH Specific Repurchase
Tender holdings (beneficial owner level) from 100 to 3000 shares (subject to 20% DWT)
Gross Offer Price - To be announced
Defaut - No Action
13 March 2019 The Foschini Group Limited 6.5 percent Preference Shares TFGP Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Transpaco Limited TPC Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Truworths International Limited TRU Cash Dividend
13 March 2019 Woolworths Holdings Limited WHL Cash Dividend
  1. The information above is to the best of our knowledge correct at the time of distribution but due to the nature thereof cannot be guaranteed.
  2. This document only contains general information and not the opinion of the distributor.

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Author
author

Adriaan Pask

Chief Investment Officer


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