Global markets hold firm as AI-led gains counter Middle East uncertainty

Market Commentary

US stocks closed at record highs on Friday as investors weighed whether the artificial intelligence (AI)‑led rally can be sustained and considered how Middle Eastern oil flows might affect inflation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 0.20% and the Dow added 0.70%; for the month the Nasdaq jumped more than 8%, the S&P 500 climbed 5% and the Dow gained 3%. Major tech names powered gains as Microsoft advanced 5% and Oracle rose over 10% after renewed AI interest following fresh funding for Anthropic, while Dell vaulted nearly 33% after raising guidance on stronger‑than‑expected demand for its AI servers.

European equities closed higher after softer‑than‑expected inflation prints and lingering hopes of progress on a US–Iran memorandum to restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Euro STOXX 50 rose 0.30% to 6 065.00 and the STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.20% to 626.50; for the week the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 added 0.60% and 0.20%, respectively. Banks finished the week up after a choppy spell, with BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas each about 1.50% higher, while SAP climbed 2.40% on a rebound in software names and AstraZeneca gained 1% after US approval for a bladder cancer treatment.

Asian markets were mixed as investors closely monitored Middle East developments. The Shanghai Composite closed nearly 1% lower amid risk‑off flows, the Nikkei surged 2.52% on strong tech and export sentiment and the Hang Seng rose 0.69% as local buying stabilised.

Commodity markets diverged: WTI futures fell 1.10% to below $88 a barrel, its weakest in roughly six weeks and down 16.20% for May, while Brent eased 1.74%. Precious metals: gold rose for a second session to $4 580 an ounce after reports that the US and Iran may extend the ceasefire, though bullion still looks set for a 0.80% monthly decline amid inflation concerns.

Locally, South Africa’s trade surplus narrowed to ZAR 15.20 billion in April as imports outpaced exports; the FTSE/JSE All Share closed 0.40% lower and the Top 40 fell 0.38%.