Global markets mixed as AI optimism offsets economic and geopolitical caution

Global markets experienced a mixed session on Monday as optimism around technology and AI developments competed with caution over economic data and geopolitical developments. In the US, early gains faded, leaving the S&P 500 near the flatline, the Dow Jones down more than 300 points, and the Nasdaq up a modest 0.20%. Technology and consumer discretionary stocks drew support from ongoing AI enthusiasm — Nvidia rose 2.80% and Microsoft added 0.40% after securing export licenses for Nvidia chips to the UAE, while Amazon jumped more than 5% following a $38 billion, multi-year partnership with OpenAI. In contrast, materials and real estate shares lagged, with notable decliners including Apple (-1%), Oracle (-2.40%), and JPMorgan (-1%).

European equities closed mostly higher, holding near last week’s record levels as investors positioned ahead of a busy corporate earnings calendar. The STOXX 50 gained 0.30%, and the STOXX 600 inched above the flatline. Trading Economics added that “auto stocks led gains after China signalled potential exemptions for Nexperia chip exports, boosting Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, BMW, and Stellantis by between 0.90% and 2.30%. Rheinmetall advanced 4% ahead of its earnings report, while Ferrari fell over 2% following broker downgrades, and Campari dropped more than 3% after Italian authorities seized $1.5 billion in shares amid an alleged tax evasion probe. BNP Paribas slipped 1.60% as it prepared to raise Additional Tier 1 capital for the first time since its failed bid for Banco Sabadell.”

Asian markets also posted gains, with mainland Chinese equities ending a two-day losing streak as easing Sino-US trade tensions lifted sentiment. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.55% to 3 960, and the Shenzhen Component added 0.19% to 13 404. Over the weekend, the White House announced that China would suspend new export controls on rare earths and drop investigations into US semiconductor firms, in exchange for a pause on certain tariffs and cancellation of a planned 100% levy on Chinese exports, following last week’s Trump–Xi summit. Nonetheless, a private survey showed China’s manufacturing activity slowed more than expected in October, echoing official data pointing to the longest contraction in over nine years.

Locally, South African markets ended mixed as investors weighed domestic data against global trends. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index slipped 0.15% to 109 081 points, dragged by resource and financial stocks, while industrial shares showed some resilience. The rand strengthened slightly to R17.29/$, supported by a softer dollar, and the 2035 government bond yield eased to 8.86%. Traders awaited the Absa manufacturing PMI and October vehicle sales, with expectations of weaker factory activity tempered by lower interest rates supporting consumer demand. Redefine Properties led gains, rising over 4.50%, while banking and mining counters lagged amid profit-taking and lower commodity prices.

Commodities reflected a cautious tone, with gold steady near $2 040/oz amid safe-haven demand, while Brent crude edged lower to around $92.50/bbl amid expectations of softer fuel demand in the US and China despite OPEC+ supply discipline. Industrial metals such as nickel and copper posted modest gains as optimism over manufacturing activity in Asia provided some support.