Rand flat as investors await inflation and interest rate data

The rand was steady at R17.07 against the US dollar at 17h30 on Monday, with investors awaiting this week’s domestic inflation print and the central bank’s interest rate decision. S&P Global’s first upgrade to South Africa’s credit rating in nearly 20 years did little to move the currency. The local Top-40 index was also flat, while the 2035 government bond yield eased to 8.61%. Economists widely expect the Monetary Policy Committee to lower the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%.

Globally, US stocks retreated as markets positioned for delayed economic data following the government shutdown, including the jobs report and trade figures. Rate futures now show only a 40% chance of a December Fed rate cut, down sharply from near consensus in early November. Nvidia slipped 1.50% ahead of its earnings release, reflecting continued volatility in AI-linked stocks.

European markets softened, with Germany’s DAX down 1.20% and the FTSE 100 slipping 0.20% as investors looked ahead to the UK budget on 26 November. Asian markets mirrored the cautious sentiment amid geopolitical tensions, with the Hang Seng down 0.70% and the Nikkei 0.10%, pressured by China–Japan strains and uncertainty over the US rate outlook.

Brent and WTI crude traded at $63.73 and $60 per barrel, respectively, after Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed operations following a two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian drone strike.