ECB cuts rates by 25bps as inflation falls, driving gains in European stocks

European shares rose on Thursday, supported by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) eighth interest rate cut in a year. The ECB reduced borrowing costs by 25 basis points and revised down its inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. While the rate cut was largely expected, the sharper-than-anticipated downward revision to the 2026 inflation outlook took some investors by surprise. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the inflation outlook remains unusually uncertain. This policy move came as the Eurozone inflation fell to 1.90% in May, slipping below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since September 2024. This was largely driven by lower energy prices and a cooling in services sector inflation. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.90%, the UK’s FTSE 100 rose by 0.06% and Germany's DAX was higher by 0.19%. Meanwhile, France's CAC 40 was the only major benchmark to fall by 0.18%. 

On the corporate front, British fintech firm Wise saw its shares jump by 7.10% after reporting full-year earnings and revealing plans to shift its primary stock listing from London to New York — a decision that reflects ongoing concerns over the attractiveness of UK capital markets.

US stocks closed mostly flat as investors digested mixed economic signals and geopolitical developments. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed up by 0.03% and 0.05%, respectively,  while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.15%. Investor sentiment was initially lifted by a phone call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which both sides described as positive, suggesting potential progress in trade talks. However, the lack of concrete outcomes from the conversation and ongoing trade uncertainty left markets largely unchanged.

Adding to market concerns, weekly jobless claims rose to 247 000—the highest in eight months—and private payroll growth fell short of expectations. These signs of a softening labour market have heightened worries about the economy's resilience. On the corporate front, Tesla shares tumbled nearly 9% after a public spat between President Trump and CEO Elon Musk intensified. Trump expressed disappointment in Musk’s stance on his tax policy bill, leading to investor unease. This decline adds to Tesla's 25% year-to-date drop, amid concerns over weak global demand and leadership controversies.

Asian markets closed with mixed performances as investors digested soft US economic data and looked ahead to the upcoming US jobs report. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell by 0.51% to close at 37 554.49, weighed down by a stronger yen that put pressure on exporters, along with weak demand at a 30-year bond auction. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose by 0.98% to 23 885.67 supported by gains in technology and fintech stocks, driven by optimism around China’s service sector growth. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.21% to end at 3 383.41 bolstered by signs of resilience in domestic economic data.

South African markets closed in positive territory, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index rising by 0.80% to end at 96 411.77 points. The Top 40 Index also advanced, gaining 0.92% to close at 88 796. The rally was supported by broad-based gains across sectors, reflecting investor optimism following better-than-expected current account data. South Africa’s current account deficit held steady at 0.50% of GDP in 1Q25. The rand also strengthened by 0.42%, trading at R17.75 to the dollar at 20h44, supported by the improved figures, which further lifted market sentiment and contributed to the day’s upbeat performance.

Commodities edged higher with Brent crude oil futures rising to $65.27 per barrel, rebounding from a 1.20% drop the previous day, as stronger summer demand is expected to boost fuel consumption. US crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels last week, the largest decline since November 2024, supporting the demand outlook. On supply, Saudi Arabia is advocating for a further OPEC+ production increase of at least 411 000 barrels per day in August 2025, while cutting July crude prices for Asia to near four-year lows amid softer demand. Meanwhile, gold prices increased by 0.51% closing at $3 351.76 per ounce.