Rand rebounds as markets welcome US tariff pause

In South Africa, the rand strengthened against a softer dollar, trading at 19.20 by 15h07 GMT—approximately 1.30% firmer than Thursday’s close. Despite the gains, analysts warned the currency remains vulnerable due to shifts in global trade sentiment and domestic political uncertainty, particularly the risk of a split within South Africa's coalition government. Earlier in the week, the rand hit a record low before rebounding sharply following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on increased tariffs for several trade partners, including South Africa. On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top 40 Index rose by 0.45% on Friday, building on a 4.50% surge the previous day.

US equities extended their volatile trajectory on Friday, following a week of dramatic rallies and sharp sell-offs, as investors weighed the mounting risk of a US recession amid heightened trade tensions with China. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq each fell by over 0.50%, while continued selling pressure in both bonds and the dollar reflected growing investor unease over the direction of US economic policy and instability in the financial system.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 erased earlier gains to close flat-to-lower, reacting to an announcement from China’s finance ministry that it would raise tariffs on US goods to 125%, escalating an already tense trade dispute. The US, in response, confirmed its total tariff burden on Chinese imports now stands at 145%, including an additional 20% levy on fentanyl-related products.

European markets mirrored this reversal, ending a turbulent week on a downbeat note as fears of a global economic slowdown intensified. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 fell 0.90%, and the broader STOXX 600 declined by 0.60%, following China's retaliatory tariff announcement. These moves came just a day after President Trump’s decision to raise US tariffs on Chinese imports once again, heightening investor anxiety across the region.

In Asia, Japanese equities followed Wall Street’s lead, with the Nikkei 225 falling 2.96% to 33 585 and the broader Topix Index dropping 2.85% to 2 467. These declines wiped out the previous session’s gains, as concerns grew over the economic fallout from the intensifying US-China trade conflict. Japan, currently subject to a 10% US tariff, is preparing to enter talks with Washington in pursuit of a more favourable trade arrangement.

Conversely, Chinese markets extended their winning streak. The Shanghai Composite rose by 0.45% to 3 238, while the Shenzhen Component added 0.82% to reach 9 834. Despite the trade war escalation, investor sentiment was buoyed by state-driven measures aimed at stabilising markets, including calls for state-owned financial institutions to increase equity investments.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures fell more than 3% this week to around $60 per barrel, following a 10.60% drop in the previous week, amid renewed concerns over global demand due to trade tensions. Gold prices surged towards the $3 200 per ounce mark—setting a new record—as demand for safe-haven assets spiked in response to a weakening US dollar and the growing risk of global economic disruption.