Global markets mixed as rate bets drive sentiment

US stock markets saw little movement on Monday as investors processed a fresh US-EU trade pact and geared up for a week loaded with corporate earnings and crucial economic updates. The S&P 500 hovered near record highs, ending flat, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.30% to hit a new all-time peak. The Dow Jones, however, dipped by 64 points. President Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, introducing a 15% standard tariff—down from the previously proposed 30%—as optimism grew around the potential for a longer-lasting US-China trade pause. Still, investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over the economic impact of global tariffs, while attention shifted to the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting for clues about a possible rate cut in September.

In South Africa, the JSE closed lower on Monday as investors looked ahead to the South African Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision later this week. The rand also weakened, slipping 1.04% to R17.89 against the dollar by 17h50, amid a stronger greenback. Market participants attributed the currency’s decline to expectations of a 25-basis point cut in the repo rate on Thursday, along with rising concerns over potential US tariffs on South African exports.

European markets reversed early gains spurred by the new US-EU trade deal, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 dropping 0.30% and 0.20% respectively. The agreement outlines a 15% duty on most EU imports and includes EU commitments to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy and defense goods, while also allowing limited access to strategic European sectors.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.70%, closing at 25 562. The rise was supported by strength in the financial and property sectors, buoyed by optimism over renewed US-China trade talks in Stockholm and speculation that the tariff truce could be extended by three months. The index hovered near its highest level in four years.

On the commodities front, WTI crude oil surged over 2% to $66.70 per barrel, following heightened geopolitical tensions. President Trump set a tighter deadline for Russia to reach a ceasefire deal on Ukraine, threatening full-scale secondary tariffs if demands are not met within 10–12 days. The warning sparked concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies.