23
April 2024
Gold slips as Middle East tensions ease
Adriaan Pask, Chief Investment Officer
PSG Wealth
Market commentary
Gold prices fell on Monday as easing fears of a wider Middle East conflict dampened bullion's safe-haven appeal, while market participants awaited a key US inflation report due later this week for insight into the trajectory of interest rates. Spot gold fell 0.90% to $2 369.97/oz at 19h00, while US gold futures lost more than 3% to $2 383.80/oz. Brent crude added 0.25% to $86.75 a barrel.
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) rose 0.26% to settle at 73 551 points on Monday, its highest level in a week, driven by strong performances in heavyweight tech stocks like Naspers and Prosus, as well as advances in the industrials sector, which helped offset losses in resource-linked counters. Concurrently, market sentiment improved as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran appeared to ease. Traders are now focusing on upcoming corporate earnings releases and key economic indicators from major economies. While off its worst levels of the day, at 19h00 on Monday, the rand had weakened 0.20% to R19.14/$, 0.12% to R20.37/€ and 0.10% to R23.62/£.
Monday saw advances in European stock indices, with the regional STOXX 600 adding 0.40% and the STOXX 50 climbing 0.30% to 4 930. These moves came on the back of easing Middle East tensions, which allowed investors to shift their attention to a series of upcoming corporate earnings releases and key economic data.
Wall Street closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising 0.80% and 1.10% respectively, snapping a six-day losing streak, while the Dow gained 254 points. Those moves came as investors bought the dip in key tech counters such as Nvidia (4.40%), AMD (1.40%) and Amazon (1.50%). Meanwhile, Tesla lost 3.40% after announcing price cuts for its Model 3 in China.
Asian stocks recovered some losses and bond yields rose as fears of a wider Middle East conflict ebbed, with investors gravitating towards riskier assets. However, Chinese stocks proved to be an outlier after the People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged despite better-than-expected first-quarter GDP data and measures to stabilise the yuan. The one-year and five-year loan price rates were maintained at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively. Markets anticipate additional policy easing from the authorities as several economic data releases in March indicated a slowdown in activity.
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Market indicators
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| Date | Index | Current Level | 1 Day Move | 1 Month Move | 6 Month Move | 1 Year Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-03 | ALSI | 76046.85 | -0.04 | 3.08 | 8.68 | 2.00 |
| 2024-05-03 | Basic minerals | 43964.96 | -1.45 | 2.81 | 11.26 | -7.50 |
| 2024-05-03 | Fin + Ind 30 | 9903.90 | 0.37 | 3.13 | 8.63 | 6.78 |
| 2024-05-03 | Financial | 40701.25 | -0.01 | 3.85 | 3.52 | 12.51 |
| 2024-05-03 | Industrial index | 112561.48 | 0.64 | 2.94 | 10.91 | 3.44 |
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Collective investment schemes
Local funds
| ASISA category | Fund name | NAV (Rands) at 02 May 2024 | Performance –As at 2024/04/30 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |||
| South Africa - Equity - General | PSG Equity Fund Class A | 16.34 | 5.75 | 16.54 | 9.96 | 12.82 |
| PSG Equity Fund Class A | 16.34 | 5.75 | 16.54 | 9.96 | 12.82 | |
| PSG Equity Fund Class E | 16.33 | 4.60 | 15.91 | 9.98 | 8.86 | |
| PSG Equity Fund Class F | 16.39 | 6.24 | 17.08 | 10.47 | 9.84 | |
| PSG SA Equity Class F | 1.53 | 5.00 | 17.16 | 8.77 | 7.23 | |
| PSG Wealth Creator Fund of Funds Class D | 52.20 | 5.60 | 9.80 | 10.11 | 11.93 | |
| South Africa - Multi Asset - Flexible | PSG Flexible Fund Class A | 7.84 | 5.13 | 15.39 | 10.16 | 11.26 |
| PSG Flexible Fund Class A | 7.84 | 5.13 | 15.39 | 10.16 | 11.26 | |
| PSG Flexible Fund Class E | 7.85 | 5.41 | 15.70 | 10.44 | 10.13 | |
| South Africa - Multi Asset - High Equity | PSG Balanced Fund Class A | 95.40 | 4.17 | 13.85 | 10.20 | 12.73 |
| PSG Balanced Fund Class A | 95.40 | 4.17 | 13.85 | 10.20 | 12.73 | |
| PSG Balanced Fund Class E | 95.49 | 4.77 | 14.50 | 10.84 | 9.69 | |
| PSG Wealth Moderate Fund of Funds Class D | 40.67 | 9.93 | 10.12 | 9.17 | 10.72 | |
| South Africa - Multi Asset - Low Equity | PSG Stable Fund Class A | 1.62 | 4.93 | 9.82 | 7.48 | 8.29 |
| PSG Stable Fund Class A | 1.62 | 4.93 | 9.82 | 7.48 | 8.29 | |
| PSG Stable Fund Class E | 1.62 | 5.54 | 10.45 | 8.09 | 8.03 | |
| PSG Wealth Preserver Fund of Funds Class D | 24.58 | 7.17 | 8.19 | 7.37 | 8.97 | |
| South Africa - Multi Asset - Income | PSG Diversified Income Fund Class A | 1.31 | 7.91 | 7.99 | 7.82 | 7.84 |
| PSG Diversified Income Fund Class A | 1.31 | 7.91 | 7.99 | 7.82 | 7.84 | |
| PSG Diversified Income Fund Class E | 1.31 | 8.59 | 8.61 | 8.39 | 8.28 | |
| PSG Wealth Income Fund of Funds Class D | 12.42 | 7.81 | 7.50 | 7.01 | 7.79 | |
| South Africa - Interest Bearing - Short Term | PSG Income Fund Class A | 1.08 | 8.14 | 6.76 | 7.27 | 7.11 |
| PSG Income Fund Class A | 1.08 | 8.14 | 6.76 | 7.27 | 7.11 | |
| PSG Income Fund Class E | 1.08 | 8.46 | 7.07 | 7.59 | 7.77 | |
| PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund of Funds Class D | 1.02 | 9.11 | 6.74 | 6.50 | 6.73 | |
| South Africa - Interest Bearing - Money Market | PSG Money Market Fund Class A | 1.00 | 7.64 | 5.88 | 5.71 | 7.92 |
| PSG Money Market Fund Class A | 1.00 | 7.64 | 5.88 | 5.71 | 7.92 | |
| PSG Money Market Fund Class F | 1.00 | 7.92 | 6.16 | 5.97 | 5.23 | |
| South African - Multi Asset - Low Equity | PSG Investment Management Cautious Fund of Funds Class D | 1.30 | 5.22 | 9.01 | — | 9.62 |
| PSG Investment Management Cautious Fund of Funds Class D | 1.30 | 5.22 | 9.01 | — | 9.62 | |
| South African - Multi Asset - High Equity | PSG Investment Management Growth Fund of Funds Class D | 1.50 | 2.95 | 11.00 | — | 11.35 |
| PSG Investment Management Growth Fund of Funds Class D | 1.50 | 2.95 | 11.00 | — | 11.35 | |
| South African - Multi Asset - Income | PSG Investment Management Multi-Asset Income Fund of Funds Class D | 1.13 | 6.96 | 7.34 | — | 7.57 |
| PSG Investment Management Multi-Asset Income Fund of Funds Class D | 1.13 | 6.96 | 7.34 | — | 7.57 | |
Performance data on local funds is shown up to the last market close minus 1 day.
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Global funds
Through our tried-and tested investment philosophy, we have built competitive global solutions to help clients achieve their investment goals.
The following funds are rand-denominated, but invest internationally:
| ASISA category | Fund name | NAV (Rands) at 02 May 2024 | Performance –As at 2024/04/30 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |||
| Global - Equity - General | PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund Class A | 4.81 | 10.55 | 18.24 | 14.36 | 13.08 |
| PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund Class A | 4.81 | 10.55 | 18.24 | 14.36 | 13.08 | |
| PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund Class E | 4.98 | 11.20 | 18.93 | 14.92 | 12.81 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Creator Feeder Fund Class D | 4.55 | 22.27 | 11.92 | 15.34 | 15.26 | |
| Global - Multi Asset - Flexible | PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class A | 3.72 | 8.63 | 15.87 | 13.83 | 12.87 |
| PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class A | 3.72 | 8.63 | 15.87 | 13.83 | 12.87 | |
| PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class B | 3.90 | 9.26 | 16.54 | 14.33 | 13.37 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class D | 4.75 | 9.50 | 7.25 | 10.48 | 11.15 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Moderate Feeder Fund Class D | 4.86 | 10.96 | 8.96 | 9.94 | 12.44 | |
| Global - Multi Asset - Low Equity | PSG Wealth Global Preserver Feeder Fund Class D | 1.53 | 8.38 | 8.91 | 7.95 | 7.08 |
| PSG Wealth Global Preserver Feeder Fund Class D | 1.53 | 8.38 | 8.91 | 7.95 | 7.08 | |
Performance data on offshore funds is shown up to the last market close minus 2 days.
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Invest in other currencies
The following funds invest internationally using foreign currency
| ASISA category | Fund name | NAV (Rands) at 30 Apr 2024 | Performance –As at 2024/03/31 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |||
| EAA Fund GBP Cautious Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (GBP) Class D | 2.05 | 6.23 | 2.28 | 2.49 | 5.01 |
| PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (GBP) Class D | 2.05 | 6.23 | 2.28 | 2.49 | 5.01 | |
| EAA Fund GBP Flexible Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (GBP) Class D | 3.71 | 7.61 | 3.14 | 6.39 | 9.38 |
| PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (GBP) Class D | 3.71 | 7.61 | 3.14 | 6.39 | 9.38 | |
| EAA Fund Global Flex-Cap Equity | PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund Class A | 2.18 | 6.31 | 8.80 | 8.10 | 5.87 |
| PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund Class A | 2.18 | 6.31 | 8.80 | 8.10 | 5.87 | |
| PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund Class B | 2.26 | 6.92 | 9.42 | 8.72 | 7.09 | |
| EAA Fund Global Large-Cap Blend Equity | PSG Wealth Global Creator Fund of Funds Class D | 2.81 | 23.38 | 5.16 | 10.46 | 9.82 |
| PSG Wealth Global Creator Fund of Funds Class D | 2.81 | 23.38 | 5.16 | 10.46 | 9.82 | |
| EAA Fund USD Cautious Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (USD) Class D | 1.65 | 5.55 | -0.52 | 1.89 | 3.45 |
| PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (USD) Class D | 1.65 | 5.55 | -0.52 | 1.89 | 3.45 | |
| EAA Fund USD Flexible Allocation | PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund Class A | 18.91 | 4.80 | 6.92 | 7.47 | 5.79 |
| PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund Class A | 18.91 | 4.80 | 6.92 | 7.47 | 5.79 | |
| PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund Class B | 20.04 | 5.29 | 7.42 | 8.05 | 6.41 | |
| PSG Investment Management Global Flexible Fund of Funds (Dollar) | 1.55 | 5.04 | -3.07 | 2.64 | 2.55 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (USD) Class D | 3.00 | 5.88 | -1.74 | 4.51 | 7.69 | |
| EAA Fund USD Moderate Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Moderate Fund of Funds Class D | 1.98 | 11.27 | 1.35 | 4.74 | 5.25 |
| PSG Wealth Global Moderate Fund of Funds Class D | 1.98 | 11.27 | 1.35 | 4.74 | 5.25 | |
Performance data on offshore funds is shown up to the last market close minus 2 days.
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Non-Collective investment schemes
House view equity portfolios
| Fund display name | Performance –As at 2024/05/03 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |
| PSG Wealth Income Growth Equity Portfolio | 4.33 | 5.54 | -0.46 | 1.56 |
| PSG Wealth Offshore Equity Portfolio (USD) | 11.01 | 3.78 | 9.80 | 11.43 |
| PSG Wealth SA Equity Portfolio | -2.41 | 2.36 | 0.51 | 3.07 |
| PSG Wealth SA Property Equity Portfolio | 14.03 | 7.62 | -2.14 | -2.88 |
* PSG Wealth equity portfolio performance are shown gross of management fees, but net of brokerage and other trading costs.
The House view portfolios are bespoke solution portfolios and not part of the Collective Investment Schemes’ portfolios.
Recent investment ideas
Nedbank
On 5 March 2024, Nedbank released its full-year 2023 results. Highlights from the results were as follows: · Headline earnings were up by 11%, with revenue (+12%) rising more than operating costs (+8%).
· Net interest income increased by 14%, with the interest margin rising from 3.93% to 4.21%, benefitting from the endowment rate impact.
· Average interest-earning banking assets grew by 7% from R922 billion to R986 billion.
· Non-interest revenue increased by 6% to R27.7 billion, boosted by fair value adjustments and exchange rate fluctuations on US$ assets in Zimbabwe.
· Expenses increased by 8% to R38.1 billion, with staff costs being the main driver due to salaries and wages increasing by 9%. Headcount decreased by 2%.
Our research supports a buy recommendation.
Please join us on Thursday at 11h30 for our Microsoft Teams Q&A sessions. Click here to join. <https://www.psg.co.za/wealthonline#investment-research>
Aspen
On 4 March 2024, Aspen released its half-year financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2023. · Total sales increased by 10.40% to R21.1bn, but up only 2% when adjusted for currency.
· EPS (cents) increased by 1.20% from 680 (cents in Dec 2022) to 688 (cents) in Dec 2023.
· EBITDA margins decreased from 26.50% to 24.60% as the company unwinds an inventory backlog of Heparin.
· The acquisition of a portfolio of drugs from Viatris, management of the Chinese volume-based procurement and filling of the vacant sterile contracts will lift growth going forward.
Our research supports a hold recommendation.
Please join us on Thursday at 11h30 for our Microsoft Teams Q&A sessions. Click here to join. <https://www.psg.co.za/wealthonline#investment-research>
Impala Platinum
n this report, we discuss the latest results released by Implala Platinum and provide our view on platinum group metals.
We include an updated valuation for Impala and stress test various assumptions to show valuation asymmetry that is skewed upwards. Impala Platinum released its interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2031 in early March 2024. The results, which contained the maiden interim inclusion of Impala Bafokeng, were characterised by the following:
- Refined production increased by 19% to 1.75moz.
- Revenue decreased by 25% driven by a materially lower PGM basket price.
- Earnings per share decreased by 89% to R1.80. o Rand weakened by 8% to R18.75 against the dollar.
- Implats has net cash of R5.2 billion (after the RBPlat acquisition).
- Implats had 16 fatalities during 1H24.
Our research supports a hold recommendation.
Please join us on Thursday at 11h30 for our Microsoft Teams Q&A sessions. Click here to join. <https://www.psg.co.za/wealthonline#investment-research>
Economic Calendar
View the Economic Calendar
Corporate Actions
| Date | Company | Share code | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 April 2024 | aREIT Property Limited | APO | Cash Dividend |
| 24 April 2024 | Barloworld Limited 6 percent Cumulative Preference | BAWP | Cash Dividend |
| 24 April 2024 | Ibex Investment Holdings Limited Preference Shares | IBX | Cash Dividend |
| 24 April 2024 | Investec Bank (Mauritius) | IMRP5 | Cash Dividend |
| 24 April 2024 | Shafterbury Capital Plc | SHC | Cash Dividend |
| 24 April 2024 | Anchor Group Pty Ltd | UAUG | Tender Offer |
| 24 April 2024 | Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Limited | WBO | Cash Dividend |
The information above is to the best of our knowledge correct.
The Corporate Actions are updated weekly.
Fund performance
Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium-term to long-term investments. The value of participatory interests (units) may go down as well as up and past performance is not a guide to future performance. Collective Investment Schemes are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on request from PSG Collective Investments (RF) Limited. Commission and incentives may be paid, and if so, are included in the overall costs. Forward pricing is used. The Portfolios may be capped at any time in order for them to be managed in accordance with their mandate.
Performance is calculated for the portfolio and individual investor performance may differ as a result thereof. Different classes of participatory interest can apply to these portfolios and are subject to different fees, charges and possibly dividend withholding tax and will thus have differing performances. Annualised performances show longer term performance rescaled over a 12-month period. Individual performance may differ as a result of initial fees, the actual investment date, the date of reinvestment and dividend withholding tax. The portfolio is valued at 15h00 daily. Income distributions are net of any applicable taxes. Investment performance data is for illustrative purposes only. Actual performance figures are available on request. Always refer to the fund fact sheet (Minimum Disclosure Document) for full details, fees and risks of the fund.
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