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The JSE rose 2.69% in January

01 February 2019

The JSE rose 2.69% in January

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Market commentary

SA flag Icon
South Africa

Despite the rand’s strong performance, the JSE closed flat on Thursday due to poor results and trading updates from the retail sector and some miners. Retailers fell 5.66% in January, making it the worst performing index in the month.

US flag Icon
United States

On Thursday most US indices rose on the back of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) deciding to take a more patient approach to future monetary policy changes, and due to stellar results released by tech companies. At market close, the Nasdaq gained 2.21% while the Dow fell 0.05%.

EU flag Icon
Europe

After choppy trading on Thursday, European markets closed flat, mostly because of weak economic data released, pointing towards possible slowing economic growth, and Italy entering a technical recession. The STOXX 600 closed up 0.16%.

HK flag Icon
Hong Kong

Asian markets enjoyed a boost on Thursday after the Fed’s monetary stance decision. These gains aided the Hang Seng to end January up 8.39% and the Chinese Enterprises Index 9% higher – the best monthly gains since January 2018. At the close of trade, the Hang Seng was 0.40% up and the Shanghai 0.35%.

Japan flag Icon
Japan

The Nikkei made up some ground on Thursday in light of the Fed’s announcement to be more patient regarding future interest rate hikes, which lifted investor sentiment. At market close, the Nikkei was 1.06% higher.

Rand Icon
Rand

The Fed’s dovish tone around interest rates boosted emerging market currencies, especially the rand, which reached an almost six-month high on Thursday. At 20h00, a rand traded at R13.31 a dollar.

Precious metals Icon
Precious metals

On Thursday gold prices continued to climb due to the Fed’s monetary policy announcements on Wednesday night, which caused the dollar to slide. At 20h00, spot gold traded at $1 321.05 an ounce.

Oil Icon
Oil

Oil prices decreased on Thursday despite production cuts and the US monetary policy updates, but because of new concerns around the US-China trade disputes. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced that either a big trade deal would be struck or it would be postponed altogether. At 20h00, a barrel of Brent crude cost $61.89.


Market indicators

Local markets (R)
Index Current level 1 Day move 1 Month move 3 Month move 6 Month move 1 Year move
ALSI 54 156.75 0.05 2.81 3.77 - 4.09 - 6.06
Gold mining 1 460.23 - 0.88 6.14 25.47 38.11 18.17
Basic minerals 29 695.97 - 1.12 3.29 2.67 5.29 15.60
Industrial index 70 843.29 0.28 0.88 2.54 - 11.27 - 17.17
Financial 43 758.98 0.74 5.96 7.17 1.92 - 0.35
Fin + Ind 30 7 422.15 0.45 2.66 4.16 - 6.93 - 11.79
International markets (Base currency)
Index Current level 1 Day move 1 Month move 3 Month move 6 Month move 1 Year move
Dow Jones (USD) 24 999.67 - 0.05 7.29 0.14 - 0.49 - 2.19
S&P 500 PR (USD) 2 705.88 1.57 7.99 0.47 - 3.37 - 3.12
NASDAQ (USD) 7 283.85 2.21 9.14 0.59 - 5.34 - 1.91
FT-100 (GBP) 6 968.85 0.39 3.63 - 1.59 - 8.37 - 3.53
Hang Seng (HKD) 27 942.47 0.40 8.39 12.58 - 2.80 - 12.21
Nikkei 225 (JPY) 20 773.49 1.06 3.80 - 5.03 - 6.96 - 8.23
Paris CAC (EUR) 4 992.72 0.36 5.57 - 1.72 - 9.04 - 6.79
Frankfurt (EUR) 5 149.51 - 0.08 5.82 - 2.40 - 12.75 - 15.29
Other markets
Index Current level 1 Day move 1 Month move 3 Month move 6 Month move 1 Year move
Gold ($) 1 322.50 0.73 3.19 8.61 8.47 - 1.55
Platinum ($) 816.00 - 0.24 2.64 - 2.04 - 0.97 - 18.24
Brent Oil ($) 61.89 0.39 15.04 - 17.99 - 16.65 - 10.37
Rand/USD 13.29 0.27 7.19 7.31 1.35 -12.11
Rand/GBP 17.41 0.52 4.70 6.53 0.76 -3.43
Rand/EUR 15.21 0.81 7.55 6.86 2.63 -3.22
ALBI (R) 651.53 1.15 2.90 7.56 4.06 8.79
  1. Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest available information
  2. Performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month


Economic calendar

Local International
  1. ZA: ABSA manufacturing PMI JAN
  2. ZA: Total new vehicle sales JAN
  1. US: Non-farm payrolls JAN
  2. DE: Final Markit manufacturing PMI JAN
  3. EU: Flash inflation rate JAN

Source: Reuters, Business Day, Trading Economics


PSG Product Matrix

Fund matrix

PSG Wealth Solutions
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest D 3.98 7.96 8.05 8.07 7.76 7.43
PSG Wealth Income FoF D 3.57 7.46 7.95 8.31 7.94 8.13
PSG Wealth Preserver FoF D 0.29 2.65 5.25 5.77 6.11 7.02
PSG Wealth Moderate FoF D - 2.80 - 1.96 3.74 5.24 5.06 6.41
PSG Wealth Creator FoF D - 3.47 - 5.82 2.31 6.09 3.59 5.17
PSG Wealth Global Moderate FF D - 1.43 4.63 3.20 0.66 5.93 5.87
PSG Wealth Global Creator FF D - 4.19 4.91 8.79 5.18 11.01 -
PSG Wealth Solutions ($)
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Wealth Global Moderate FoF D - 4.20 - 7.54 3.41 6.02 1.92 1.97
PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF D - 6.79 - 7.96 8.69 10.58 6.61 6.51
PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (USD) D - 0.16 - 1.54 2.95 6.05 3.26 3.57
PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (USD) D - 3.56 - 5.31 8.67 11.10 7.03 6.47
PSG Wealth Solutions (£)
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (GBP) D - 0.12 3.72 1.84 8.08 5.70 6.79
PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (GBP) D - 3.40 0.24 5.73 13.23 9.22 10.72
PSG Asset Management
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Money Market A 3.59 7.30 7.43 7.22 7.04 6.92
PSG Income A 3.99 8.16 8.48 8.47 7.98 7.75
PSG Diversified Income 2.75 6.56 7.75 7.92 7.87 7.63
PSG Stable A 0.28 2.29 5.66 7.31 6.89 6.96
PSG Balanced A - 2.71 - 2.62 3.35 7.58 6.15 7.11
PSG Flexible A - 1.33 - 1.99 3.34 9.08 7.26 8.11
PSG SA Equity D - 3.17 - 10.07 - 0.61 10.26 - -
PSG Equity A - 2.87 - 6.70 1.05 10.77 5.12 6.41
PSG Global Flexible FF A - 1.70 2.44 2.18 5.33 7.58 -
PSG Global Equity FF A - 2.85 0.48 2.99 7.16 7.63 6.92
PSG Asset Management ($)
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Global Flexible USD A - 4.78 - 9.30 2.90 11.33 4.14 3.44
PSG Global Equity USD - 5.64 - 10.50 3.88 13.01 4.45 3.56
PSG Direct Portfolios
Fund 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Direct Flexible Income 3.25 6.98 7.60 7.64 7.35 7.13
PSG Direct Low Equity - 0.16 1.50 5.05 7.00 6.44 6.65
PSG Direct Managed - 2.59 - 2.90 2.88 7.47 5.95 6.88
PSG Direct Aggressive - 2.00 - 2.73 2.11 8.46 6.44 -
PSG Direct Global Managed - 1.92 1.97 1.72 4.85 7.09 -
PSG Direct Global Aggressive - 2.64 0.76 2.23 6.01 7.13 -
  1. The PSG Wealth Solutions are exclusively available through registered PSG planners and/or advisers
  2. The above information reflects the latest available data at time of distribution, as such product performance data reflects T-2 numbers
  3. Performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month
  4. The PSG Best Ideas Portfolios were renamed to the PSG Direct Portfolios in February 2018

Equity portfolio matrix

PSG Wealth Equity Portfolios
Portfolio 6 Month move 1 Year move 2 Year move 3 Year move 4 Year move 5 Year move
PSG Wealth SA Equity Portfolio -4.19 -6.55 1.78 6.98 - -
PSG Wealth SA Property Equity Portfolio -1.14 -8.05 -1.80 -0.44 - -
PSG Wealth SA Dividend Income Equity Portfolio -2.78 -6.49 5.41 - - -
PSG Wealth Offshore Equity Portfolio (USD) -0.74 -2.69 14.33 13.12 - -
PSG Wealth Managed Volatility Equity Portfolio -6.33 -12.38 -2.27 - - -
  1. The PSG Wealth equity portfolios are exclusively available through registered PSG planners and/or advisers
  2. PSG Wealth equity portfolio performance are shown gross of management fees, but net of brokerage and other trading costs
  3. PSG Wealth SA and Offshore Equity Portfolio Inception date: 30 August 2015
  4. PSG Wealth SA Listed Property Portfolio Inception date: 1 December 2015
  5. PSG Wealth Dividend Income Equity Portfolio Inception date: 29 April 2016
  6. PSG Wealth Managed Volatility Equity Portfolio Inception date: 28 July 2016
  7. PSG Wealth Funds are exclusively available through registered PSG planners and/or advisers


Recent trade ideas

company logo

Share name Share code Release date Recommended exposure is less than Share price Read the full report
Compangnie Financière Richemont CFR: Johannesburg 01 February 2019 3.50% ZAR 9 480 cents Login to read the full report

Highlights

  • Our research shows the share is fairly valued at its current levels, which is why we have a neutral positioning.
  • We can assume, based on growth estimates, that steady improvements in the revenue line and the normalisation of the impact of inventory buy-backs on margins will happen.
  • Traditionally, growth in the luxury goods sector is ahead of economic growth.
  • The luxury goods sector is supported by an expanding middle class and ultra-high net worth individuals in emerging markets (EMs) – particularly China.
  • We are concerned about the sustainability of the group’s strong growth results as we move closer to the end of a global growth cycle and are seeing slower development in China.
  • The group’s fortunes have also been linked to travel flows.
  • The reliance on trading by the group’s distribution partners creates volatility in the top-line performance.
  • The challenges in the wholesale channel should be, to some extent, mitigated by continued expansion in the retail base where management has control over distribution.
  • The e-commerce initiatives are intended to move closer to its customers, but the impact on margins is not yet clear.
  • The group has high barriers to entry given the strength of its Maisons division and improved control over supply chains and distribution, all of which could support the long-term pricing power of its products.
  • With the majority of their costs denominated in Swiss francs, appreciation in the franc is likely to introduce volatility in margins.
  • In addition, SA shareholders should be reminded that the share price will remain a function of the CHF/ZAR exchange rate to a large extent.


company logo

Share name Share code Release date Recommended exposure is Share price Read the full report
0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlights


company logo

Share name Share code Release date Recommended exposure is Share price Read the full report
0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlights


Corporate actions

Date Company Share code Expectation
06 February 2019 Cullinan Holdings Limited 5.5 percent Cumulative Preference Shares CULP Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class A Preference Share ECSP1 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class A Preference Share ECSP10 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class C Preference Share ECSP12 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class A Preference Share ECSP13 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class C Preference Share ECSP15 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class C Preference Share ECSP18 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class C Preference Share ECSP21 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class C Preference Share ECSP24 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class C Preference Share ECSP3 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class A Preference Share ECSP4 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class C Preference Share ECSP6 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class A Preference Share ECSP7 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Ecsponent Limited Class C Preference Share ECSP9 Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Howden Africa Holdings Limited HWN General Offer
06 February 2019 Nu-World Holdings Limited NWL Cash Dividend
06 February 2019 Peregrine Holdings Limited PGR Cash Dividend
  1. The information above is to the best of our knowledge correct at the time of distribution but due to the nature thereof cannot be guaranteed.
  2. This document only contains general information and not the opinion of the distributor.

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Author
author

Adriaan Pask PhD

Chief Investment Officer


At PSG Wealth
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