Markets on edge as US–Iran tensions resurface

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:

• JPM operates across Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Banking, Commercial Banking and Asset & Wealth Management, providing diversified revenue streams across US retail, wholesale and global markets with selective international exposure. The portfolio generates a mix of recurring and market-sensitive income, captures higher-margin capital markets and advisory opportunities, and provides exposure to both secured and unsecured lending, supporting earnings durability across varying economic and rate environments.

• Under Jamie Dimon, JPM leverages digital banking and AI, supported by a large mobile user base and automation, to drive client acquisition, engagement and operating leverage. Rising digital penetration supports a durable cost and risk advantage over peers.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. delivers sector-leading profitability, consistently generating double-digit ROE/ROTCE alongside robust capital and liquidity. Strong capital generation supports sustained investment, dividends and buybacks, underpinned by scale and funding advantages.

• Solid fundamentals but valuation constrains upside: Despite strong leverage to the United States, the stock trades at a premium to peers, with its quality largely priced in. As sector valuations appear modestly stretched and earnings tailwinds normalise, risk-reward profile looks balanced, supporting a hold stance.

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:

• B2B digital services: DTE is growing its high-margin business‑customer segment by offering 5G private networks, secure connectivity (SD-WAN) and sovereign cloud services to a range of companies and public institutions, with strong demand from factories, ports and logistics hubs.

• T-Mobile US market share expansion: T‑Mobile US has transitioned from a low‑cost challenger to the best‑in‑class network, supporting a mix shift toward higher‑quality, prime subscribers while continuing to expand into under‑penetrated rural America.

• German fibre monetisation (FTTH): The decade‑long copper-to-FTTH migration acts as a structural value driver, boosting ARPU through higher‑speed tiers and convergent bundles, while progressively reducing network maintenance and fault‑repair OpEx.

• Disciplined capital allocation: While European peers remain constrained by leverage and higher interest rates, DTE is returning ~€2 billion annually via buybacks and steadily increasing its TMUS stake from 50.6% to 52.8%, enhancing exposure to US growth without compromising balance sheet resilience.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) and data centre optionality: Strategic partnerships with NVIDIA and Brookfield to build sovereign AI compute infrastructure in Germany provide medium-term upside optionality as European enterprises and governments seek local, secure AI cloud capacity.

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:

• Copper-leveraged portfolio into electrification: Anglo American’s increasing focus on copper and premium iron ore, supported by the proposed merger with Teck Resources, positions it as a key beneficiary of structurally higher copper demand driven by grid investment, renewables, electric vehicles (EVs), and data centres.​

• Structural copper deficit supports pricing: Industry analysis suggests global copper demand could grow by 40%–60% over the next two decades, with a sizeable supply gap set to emerge due to permitting delays, grade decline, and underinvestment constraining new projects. This dynamic underpins a supportive long-term price deck for tier-one producers such as Anglo.​

• Portfolio simplification driving quality: Excluding De Beers and other non-core assets, representing lower quality and lower margin businesses, Anglo’s core copper and premium iron ore businesses delivered strong margins in FY25, reinforcing a higher-return, lower-volatility earnings base.

• De Beers is a clear drag: De Beers’ loss-making performance and impairment in FY25 weighed on group returns. Management’s plan to separate or divest the underperforming diamonds business serves as a visible value-unlock catalyst, enabling investors to re‑rate Anglo based on its core copper and iron ore franchise.