Markets remain cautious amid geopolitical tensions and firm oil prices

Market Commentary

WTI crude oil futures held steady at $95 per barrel on Friday, as fresh US-Iran tensions undermined a fragile ceasefire and dimmed hopes for a quick resolution. Prices dipped roughly 7% over the week, yet focus stayed on Persian Gulf skirmishes, with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed since late February 2026 – sparking major supply shocks. Tehran accused Washington of truce violations, while the US defended strikes on Iranian military targets as retaliation for attacks on its warships and blockades of departing tankers. Investors now balance diplomatic hopes against escalation risks.

Precious metals rallied despite the broader conflict's toll: gold surged past $4 720 per ounce to its highest since 22 April 2026, eyeing a weekly gain of over 2%, while silver jumped more than 2% to $80.36 per ounce. Gold has nonetheless lost over 10% since hostilities began, weighed down by oil-driven inflation fears clouding interest rate outlooks.

US equities climbed on jobs data and tech strength, as the S&P 500 rose 0.80% to close at 7 399 on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite advancing 1.70% to a record 26 247; the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged up just 12 points to 49 609. Buoyant US employment figures provided a tailwind, as April nonfarm payrolls rose by 115 000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.30%. Traders kept a watchful eye on escalating US-Iran friction in the Strait of Hormuz, though President Donald Trump affirmed the ceasefire was holding firm.

Tech stocks shone amid enthusiasm for artificial intelligence investments, led by sharp gains in Micron Technology and Sandisk. Tesla and Nvidia each rose more than 1%, while AMD climbed 2% – putting it on course for a 15% weekly gain. All major indices wrapped up the week in positive territory, propelled by robust corporate results and tech resilience: the Nasdaq surged 4.50%, the S&P 500 gained 2.30%, extending its winning streak to six weeks [the longest since 2024].

European equities extended their decline on Friday, as renewed strike action reignited concerns over tighter energy supplies and the potential impact on major importing economies. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 retreated 1.10% to 5 905, while the broader STOXX 600 slipped 0.80% to 612. Germany’s DAX 40 lost 1.30% to close at 24 339, adding to the previous session’s weakness as sentiment across the region remained fragile. The FTSE 100 was comparatively resilient, edging 0.40% lower.

Consumer discretionary counters led the declines, with luxury and retail names such as Hermès, Adidas and Inditex each retreating by more than 2.50%. Aerospace group Safran extended its losses, falling a further 3%, while defence manufacturer Rheinmetall slumped 10% as markets reacted to its latest earnings update. Italian lender Intesa Sanpaolo also came under pressure after releasing its results, ending the session around 2% lower.

Asian markets ended mostly weaker on Friday, retreating from the record highs reached earlier in the week as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran unsettled investors and pushed oil prices higher. Sentiment across the region softened as traders weighed the potential implications for global energy supply and inflation.

Economic data from China, however, painted a more resilient picture. Imports jumped 25.3% year-on-year to USD 274.62 billion in April 2026, marking a second consecutive month of record-high inbound trade. Exports also exceeded expectations, rising 14.1% year-on-year to an all-time high of USD 359.44 billion, comfortably ahead of forecasts for a 7.9% increase. Despite the strong trade figures, major regional indices closed lower, with Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite all ending the session in negative territory.

Locally, sentiment mirrored the softer global tone, with all major equity indices closing in negative territory. The JSE All Share Index and Top 40 both fell more than 1%, while Industrials, Financials, and Metals and Mining shares also came under pressure. The rand, however, strengthened marginally against the US dollar to trade around R16.37, although it weakened against both the euro and pound.