Markets extend gains as ceasefire hopes lift sentiment

Market Commentary

Global markets extended gains on Wednesday, as improving sentiment around the Middle East conflict and shifting energy dynamics continued to guide investor positioning.

US equities closed higher for a second consecutive session, with the S&P 500 rising 0.90%, the Nasdaq gaining 1.30%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.60%. Sentiment was supported by indications from President Donald Trump that Iran had requested a ceasefire, alongside suggestions that US military forces could withdraw within weeks, contingent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining operational. Technology stocks led the advance, with Alphabet up 2.80%, Micron Technology surging 8.90%, and further gains recorded by Meta and Amazon. In contrast, Nike fell sharply by 15.60% following muted guidance. Treasury yields held steady, with ADP data showing private sector employment increased by 62 000 in March 2026.

US manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI holding at 52.3 points in March 2026. Output and new orders strengthened, supported by domestic demand, while international sales declined amid tariffs and shipping challenges. Supplier delivery times lengthened significantly, and input cost pressures rose to their highest level since August 2025, with output prices increasing at the fastest pace in seven months. Business confidence edged lower, reflecting concerns over energy costs and tariffs.

In Europe, markets moved higher as expectations of a potential de-escalation continued to support sentiment. The FTSE 100 rose 1.70% to a two-week high, marking a third consecutive session of gains, while Germany’s DAX 40 advanced 2.70% after a weak March. Financial and travel stocks led gains in London, while oil majors weighed on the index. In Frankfurt, industrial and financial stocks recorded strong advances, although a small number of stocks declined. 

Asian markets traded lower on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite falling 0.30% and the Shenzhen Component declining 1.10%, as sentiment softened on mixed signals regarding the trajectory of the Middle East conflict. Comments from President Trump pointed to both potential progress and the risk of further escalation. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China withdrew liquidity through both short- and longer-term operations, reflecting a more cautious policy stance as growth shows signs of recovery.

Locally, South Africa’s Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 49 points in March 2026 from 47.4 in February 2026, although the reading indicated a sixth consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. New orders remained subdued, while supplier delivery delays and higher input costs, driven by a weaker rand and elevated oil prices, continued to weigh on the sector. The index tracking expected business conditions declined sharply, highlighting concerns around the impact of the conflict on costs and demand.

In energy markets, WTI crude settled at $99.60 per barrel, easing as expectations of a potential resolution reduced the geopolitical risk premium. US crude inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels, marking a sixth consecutive weekly build, as refinery utilisation declined and crude runs slowed. Despite the pullback, the Strait of Hormuz remained a focal point for global energy markets.

Gold rose above $4 730 per ounce, supported by a softer US dollar amid signs of potential de-escalation, while gains were limited by steady Treasury yields and resilient economic data. Silver hovered around $75 per ounce, recovering from earlier losses, as currency movements and geopolitical developments continued to influence pricing. Copper prices edged lower, falling below $5.60 per pound, as uncertainty around the conflict and concerns over demand weighed on sentiment.