Global shares climb while the JSE cautiously ticks up

Market Commentary

US stock indices rebounded on Tuesday, paring Monday's declines as investors recalibrated risks posed by artificial intelligence (AI)-driven advances in software and automation. The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, with the Dow close to 0.70% up and Nasdaq 100 almost at 1%. Software stocks notched a partial recovery after early-week losses sparked by fears that AI tools could supplant service providers; ServiceNow, Intuit and Salesforce averaged 3% gains. Payment firms also steadied, shaking off displacement concerns, as Visa, Mastercard and American Express edged up about 0.50%. AMD surged 6% after Meta revealed plans to invest billions in its processors for data centres.

Turning to Europe, stocks ticked higher, clawing back some of Monday's losses as traders weighed the potential upheaval from swift AI progress in key industries. The EURO STOXX 50 edged up 0.10% and the STOXX Europe 600 advanced 0.30% to 630, hovering near last week's peak. AI infrastructure shares gained ground ahead of Nvidia's US earnings and on news of a Meta Platforms-AMD tie-up, with ASML and Infineon Technologies rising 1.10% and 1.80%, respectively.

Automotive stocks rallied after the US set a 10% tariff on European imports – below the earlier 15% hint – following a US Supreme Court decision. BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz Group each climbed over 1%. Tech firms like SAP and Adyen deepened losses, however, while banks weakened: Banco Santander dropped 2.50%, while Intesa Sanpaolo and Deutsche Bank fell 1.70%. Germany's DAX ended flat at 24 986, balancing trade policy shifts and company news, with caution ahead of President Donald Trump's upcoming Union address. London's FTSE 100 closed 0.03% firmer.

Shifting focus to Asia, governments are raising concerns over the new US tariff framework as Japan seeks confirmation that its terms will match the favourable deal secured with the US last year. Meanwhile, Taiwan wants guarantees that its existing preferential arrangements remain unchanged. China entered the fray on Tuesday by banning exports of dual-use goods to 20 Japanese firms it accuses of military ties, in a move to counter Japan's alleged ‘remilitarisation’. Markets in Japan and China brushed aside the tensions, rising on the back of reduced US tariffs as they resumed trading post-holiday and digested Friday's developments. The Nikkei 225 and Shanghai climbed higher almost 1%. In contrast, the Hang Seng contracted 1.69%.

Closer to home, South African markets were mixed. The benchmark FTSE/JSE All Share Index saw modest gains at 0.09% as financials and industrials provided support, while the broader market remained anchored by cautious sentiment ahead of the 2026 national budget announcement, with the rand trading around R15.95 against the dollar and local investors focused on fiscal policy and economic data due this week.

In commodities, US gasoline futures fell below $2 per gallon, retreating from the five-month high of $2.01 reached on 19 February, as markets monitored upcoming US–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. President Donald Trump reiterated his preference for a diplomatic solution but warned of consequences if no agreement is reached, keeping focus on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have redirected Russian exports towards crude rather than refined products. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3.2 million-barrel decline in US gasoline inventories for the second week of February.

Precious metals mirrored the cautious tone, with silver falling nearly 1% to $87.50 per ounce on Tuesday, weighed down by heavy liquidation in China despite continued safe-haven demand linked to the US’s new 15% global tariff and geopolitical tensions. The metal remains under pressure following last week’s sharp 38% intraday slide, which effectively ended February’s speculative rally. Additional weakness stems from solar manufacturers increasingly substituting silver with copper to manage rising costs, even as the market faces a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit. Gold also extended losses, dropping almost 2% to around $5 159 per ounce, as investors favoured US Treasuries over traditional safe-haven assets.