South Africa’s economy shows marginal growth in first quarter of 2025

The South African economy recorded a modest quarter-on-quarter expansion of just 0.10% in the first quarter of 2025, following a downward revision of the 4Q24 growth of 0.40%. This slight increase came despite analysts having predicted stagnation. On a year-on-year basis, GDP grew by 0.80% in 1Q25. Notably, the robust 15.80% performance in the agriculture sector was pivotal; without it, the economy would have contracted by 0.30%, highlighting agriculture’s vital role in sustaining growth during this period. The All Share Index dropped by 280.03 points (0.29%) to close at 94 882.30, while the JSE 40 fell by 0.36%. By 18h45 SAST the rand was at R17.89/$, down by 0.31%.

US stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.50% to close at 5 965.58 and the Dow Jones advancing by 0.31%. The Nasdaq outperformed, rising by approximately 0.81% to finish at 19 397.86. Markets recovered from a sluggish start, supported by a stronger-than-expected JOLTS report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which signalled continued strength in the labour market. Job openings unexpectedly increased by 191 000 to 7.391 million, indicating sustained demand for workers. However, some of the optimism was tempered by factory orders, which declined more than anticipated. Market sentiment was also influenced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) revised GDP forecast, which projects a slowdown from 3.30% in 2024 to 2.90% in both 2025 and 2026. The OECD attributed the weaker outlook to escalating trade tensions that originated during the Trump administration and continue to weigh on the US economy. 

European stock markets ended mostly flat, with the STOXX Europe 50 edging up by 0.32% and the STOXX 600 closing unchanged at 548.42 points. The muted performance reflected cautious investor sentiment amid global growth concerns and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the European Central Bank later this week. Political uncertainty also weighed on sentiment, following the collapse of the Dutch government over immigration policy disagreements. 

In the UK, the FTSE 100 rose by 0.15%, supported by gains in defensive sectors, which helped to offset declines in mining shares following disappointing economic data from China. On the FTSE 250, defence firm Chemring rose sharply after signalling it expects to benefit from increased government defence spending. Meanwhile, the OECD warned that the UK’s limited fiscal headroom under Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s current spending plans could leave the economy vulnerable to future shocks.

Asian markets showed a mixed performance at close. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped by 0.06% to 37 446.81, marking its third consecutive day of losses. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.40%, closing at 23 481.31, while China’s Shanghai Composite also saw modest gains, increasing by 0.36% to 3 359.40, reflecting positive sentiment linked to trade developments. Overall, while some Asian markets benefited from signs of easing trade frictions, others remained subdued amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.

On the commodities front, gold increased by 1.34% closing at $3 345.40 per ounce, while Brent crude also recorded gains of 1.69%, trading at $65,72 per barrel.