'Liberation Day' grips markets as Nasdaq and S&P 500 closes down

Most global markets closed lower on the last day of the quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight decline of 0.19%, closing at 41 664.02, while its quarterly loss stood at 2.30%. The S&P 500 ended the day with a 0.37% drop, closing at 5 560.49 - its lowest point since September 2022. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite led the downturn, falling by 1.35% on the day to close at 17 088.73, marking a six-month low. 

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the likelihood of a US recession in the next 12 months to 35%, up from its previous estimate of 20%. The bank also revised its GDP projections downward for both the US and Eurozone, reflecting heightened concerns about economic growth amidst trade tensions.

European markets closed lower as investor sentiment was weighed down by impending US tariff concerns. The Stoxx 600 index ended the day 1.51% lower at 535.44, with nearly all sectors and major bourses firmly in negative territory. The Euro Stoxx 50 reflected the broader market weakness, closing at 5 381.08, down by 0.57%. 

Asian markets were also impacted with the Nikkei 225 falling by over 4% to close at 35 617.56 and the Hang Seng at 23 146.94, down by 1.19%. The region's vulnerability to trade tensions, due to its reliance on export manufacturing, was further exacerbated by the recent earthquake in Myanmar, adding to regional instability.

At 20h00 SAST, the South African rand traded at 18.33 against the US dollar and 19.81 against the euro. The currency strengthened slightly as reports emerged suggesting that coalition partners were nearing a budget deal, which could help stabilise the economic outlook. Despite these positive developments, the broader economic context remains cautious with global trade tensions continuing to contribute to uncertainty and weigh on investor sentiment.

In the commodities market, gold reached a high of $3 150 an ounce as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to economic reservations. Brent crude oil closed at $72.54, reflecting broader market pessimism and concerns about global demand.