JSE rallied as local GDP beat forecasts at 0.80% q/q

South Africa’s GDP grew by 0.80% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing forecasts. However, growth remains below 1%, highlighting persistent structural challenges, particularly in the logistics sector. Over the past decade, the economy has averaged annual growth of under 1% and is projected to expand by less than 2% this year, according to the Bureau for Economic Research.

Key risks to the outlook include US trade tariffs and uncertainty over the effectiveness of the coalition government. Meanwhile, the yield on South Africa’s 10-year government bonds has slipped to around 9.51% – its lowest level since late January – as markets price in further interest rate cuts. The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to lower the repo rate by 25 basis points, either in September or November.

Equity markets were buoyant, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index climbing 0.44% to a record high above 103 200, led by industrial metals and mining stocks. Anglo American jumped more than 8% after agreeing to acquire Canadian miner Teck Resources in a US$20 billion deal.

US stocks edged higher on Tuesday as investors digested revised labour data showing the US added 911 000 fewer jobs than previously estimated through March 2025 the steepest downward adjustment since 2002. Despite the weaker outlook, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each advanced 0.30%, while the Dow Jones added 197 points, keeping all three indices near record highs. 

The disappointing jobs revision strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with debate now focused on the scale of the reduction. Sector performance was mixed: energy stocks led gains, while materials lagged. Among the major technology names, Meta climbed 1.80% and Alphabet rose 2.40%, but Apple slipped 1.50% after unveiling its iPhone 17 range, fuelling concerns about long-term demand.

In Europe, equities closed slightly firmer, with the STOXX 50 up 0.20% at 5 372 and the STOXX 600 marginally higher at 553. Markets balanced political uncertainty in France with fresh merger-and-acquisition activity. President Macron appointed the country’s fifth prime minister in under two years after parliament voted no confidence in François Bayrou, reflecting deep divisions over budget reforms.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.20% to 25 938, a four-year high, supported by broad-based strength and optimism over a US rate cut following weak jobs data. Japan’s Nikkei, however, fell 0.42% to 43 459 and the Topix lost 0.51% as investors took profits after recent record highs, while political uncertainty grew after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation.

Gold surged to a record high of $3 660 per ounce on Tuesday, while Brent crude oil futures rose more than 1% to above $67 per barrel, extending the previous session’s gains. The rally was driven by geopolitical tensions following blasts in Doha, Qatar, where Israel claimed to have targeted senior Hamas leaders. Smoke plumes over the Katara district unsettled the key mediator in the conflict, adding further support to oil prices.