Oil prices slip as supply fears ease and energy majors retreat from early highs

WTI crude oil futures fell by around 7%, closing near $68.50 per barrel on Monday, as markets took comfort in the lack of casualties following Iran’s missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar, seen by many as a sign of de-escalation. Earlier in the session, prices had surged to $74.30, the highest level since January 2025, before retreating as investors reassessed the likelihood of immediate supply disruptions and awaited further developments. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key chokepoint, responsible for around 20% of global oil shipments. While Iran’s parliament has voiced support for a partial closure, the final decision lies with the country’s national security council. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that such action would be “economic suicide” for Iran and called on China, its largest oil customer, to intervene.

In response to falling oil prices, energy majors ExxonMobil and Chevron gave up earlier gains. Nonetheless, broader equity markets remained buoyed by strong corporate earnings and easing concerns over near-term supply risks. Meanwhile, gold prices slipped 0.21% to $3 381.23 per ounce, while platinum gained 1.68% to settle at $1 288.35.

US stocks trimmed some of their recent gains on Monday after Iran launched missile strikes on US bases in Qatar. Despite this, the major indices still ended the day higher with the S&P 500 closing 0.69% at 6 008.75, the Dow Jones futures rose by 0.72% to 42 820.00 and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.83% to finish at 19 609.69. Tesla was a standout performer, climbing more than 8% following the launch of its first driverless taxi fleet, while AMD gained 2.3% after receiving a research upgrade.

On Monday, US Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman suggested that interest rate cuts might be approaching. She highlighted growing concerns about labour market risks but saw less chance that elevated import tariffs would cause persistent inflation. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened by 0.41% against the Japanese yen to 146.68. The euro rebounded from earlier losses, rising 0.09% to $1.1532 following Bowman’s comments. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies including the yen and euro, fell by 0.19%.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 edged lower by 0.19% to close at 8 758.04 as investors adopted a cautious stance due to geopolitical tensions. Travel stocks also came under pressure, with easyJet falling more than 2% and IAG down nearly 1.50%. Frankfurt’s DAX closed around 0.29% lower at 23 282.51, mirroring the broader regional mood as traders balanced geopolitical uncertainties with fresh economic data. The pan-European STOXX 50 slipped 0.20% to 5 222, while the STOXX 600 fell 0.30% to 535, reflecting a cautious shift towards safer assets. Among individual movers, Novo Nordisk shares dropped 5.30% after the company ended its retail partnership with Hims & Hers. Insurers also faced declines on concerns over the risks posed by potential military action affecting tankers and infrastructure, with AXA and Munich Re both falling more than 3%.

South African markets ended Monday on a positive note, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index rising by 0.44% to close at 95 128.20. The FTSE/JSE Top 40 advanced 0.63% to 87 683.76, while the FTSE/JSE Capped Shareholder-Weighted Top 40 also gained 0.63% to settle at 16 321. In contrast, the property sector remained under pressure, as the FTSE/JSE All Property Index declined by 0.51% to 8 743. Overall, the local market showed resilience, bolstered by broad-based strength across most sectors despite a drag from property stocks. Meanwhile, the rand firmed, ending the session 0.75% stronger at R17.86 to the US dollar.

Asian markets showed mixed results, with the Nikkei falling 0.13% to close at 38 354.09, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai indices rose by 0.64% and 0.71%, respectively.