Global markets bounce back amid stronger earnings and a weaker dollar

The US equity markets have shown resilience in the face of mixed economic signals. The S&P 500 has fluctuated around recent highs, closing on Thursday at 5 444.78, 1.28% higher driven by robust earnings reports from major technology firms, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has displayed a modest recovery at 0.57% closing at 39 832.72, bolstered by gains in industrial stocks. The Nasdaq closed at 17 005.17 at 1.78% after a week marked by volatility, as markets continued to evaluate the outlook for US trade flows and their potential impact on corporate profits. Equities were bolstered by President Donald Trump's comments indicating that tariffs on China would not remain at 145% in the long-term. However, Beijing has expressed that it will not engage in dialogue until the US lowers its tariffs, raising doubts about the prospect of a resolution. Software and semiconductor stocks experienced significant gains after Texas Instruments reported strong results, driving its shares up by 5%. IBM fell 7% after missing earnings expectations, while Procter & Gamble dropped 4% and Merck declined by 1.50% following a revision of its outlook due to the effects of tariffs. The dollar index extended its earlier losses, dipping below the 99.4 mark on Thursday and trimming the rebound seen in the previous session. 

The Eurozone stock markets have witnessed a subdued atmosphere on Thursday, rebounding from earlier losses. Investors remained attentive to ongoing trade uncertainties. The FTSE 100 gained 0.01%, closing at 8 403.83. Stoxx 50 indices gained 0.30%, finishing at 5 115, while the Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.50% to close at 519 ending the day in the green as Germany’s Dax index rose by 0.50%. Selected stocks in the semiconductor sector also saw gains - ASML increased by 2% and Infineon surged by 8%. Additionally, the chemicals and energy sectors enjoyed a positive session, with both Eni and Air Liquide increasing by over 2%. Meanwhile, Adidas experienced a 2.50% rise after reporting that its profits for the first quarter exceeded expectations.

Asian stocks exhibited mixed performance on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite edging up by a mere 0.04% to close at 3 297.77, while the Nikkei closed at 0.49% at 35 039.15 and the Hang-Seng dropped by 0.89% to close at 21 875.60 as trade-related uncertainties continued to impact market sentiment. Although initial investor optimism was buoyed after President Donald Trump indicated a more lenient approach towards China and Beijing showed some willingness for conditional trade discussions, the momentum quickly dissipated after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tempered expectations by stating that no unilateral tariff reductions have been proposed and that formal negotiations are yet to commence.

South Africa’s benchmark 10-year bond yield rebounded to around 11%, reversing part of its recent slide to a three-week low of 10.80% on April 23, fuelled by expectations of rate cuts amid a sharper-than-expected drop in inflation. Meanwhile, the National Treasury announced that the VAT rate will remain at 15%, ending a two-month political standoff over a widely opposed tax hike. However, the unexpected U-turn raises concerns about how the government will cover the resulting R75 billion budget shortfall. Treasury said Parliament will be asked to revise spending plans to ensure the revenue gap does not undermine fiscal sustainability. At 18h57 SAST, the rand traded at 18.75 to the dollar with a drop of 0.42%.

Commodities saw brent crude oil futures trade at approximately $66.59 per barrel on Thursday, following a nearly 0.71% decline, as investors assessed the implications of potential OPEC+ production increases amidst ongoing trade developments. Several members of OPEC+ are anticipated to suggest a second consecutive month of accelerated output increases in June. Meanwhile, gold prices declined by 3% closing at $3 330.81 per ounce on Thursday.