US stocks edge up amid ongoing trade negotiations and tariff concerns

US equities were mostly higher on Wednesday as markets digested fresh economic data, developments in global trade negotiations, and notable corporate activity. The S&P 500 rose by 0.30% to reach a new record high, while the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.60%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, ended the session broadly unchanged. President Trump announced a revised trade agreement that would impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods—lower than the 46% previously introduced on "Liberation Day". Despite this, uncertainty lingered as reports emerged of stalled negotiations with Japan and an unresolved deal with the European Union, all ahead of the planned reintroduction of aggressive US tariffs next week.

In South Africa, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s All Share Index (SAALL) declined by 0.31% to 96 609 points on Wednesday, reflecting broader investor caution. The South African rand weakened against a strengthening US dollar during early trade on Wednesday, ahead of the release of a key domestic inflation expectations survey. Notably, household expectations for inflation over the next year fell to a more than four-year low of 4.30% in the second quarter of 2025, down from a revised 4.60% in the previous period—suggesting moderating price pressures.

In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 posted modest gains for a second consecutive session, buoyed by strength in financial and commodity-related stocks. Standard Chartered led the gains, rising nearly 3%, followed by Barclays, which added over 1.50%. HSBC, NatWest, and Lloyds each recorded gains of around 1%. Market sentiment was further lifted by news that Banco de Sabadell had agreed to sell its British unit, while shares in Spectris surged 4.80% after private equity firm KKR tabled a £40-per-share bid, outbidding Advent’s £37.63 offer.

Elsewhere in Europe, equities advanced on Wednesday, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 climbing 0.50% and 0.30%, respectively. Investors responded positively to perceived progress in trade talks between the US and key partners, while also focusing on commentary from the ECB forum for clues on monetary policy direction over the remainder of the year. Despite hopes of de-escalation, President Trump reaffirmed his commitment to the 9 July deadline for the next wave of tariffs, warning that negotiations could collapse and new duties would be imposed on several countries, including Japan.

Across Asia, markets were more subdued. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.56% to close at 39 762, while the broader Topix Index slipped 0.21% to 2 826. Earlier losses were partially recovered after Japanese officials reiterated their intention to pursue a “win-win” trade agreement with the US, although no specific concessions were disclosed. Tensions escalated after President Trump described the talks with Tokyo as “really hard” and threatened to raise tariffs on Japanese imports to 35%, citing Japan’s limited imports of US rice and automobiles as a key grievance.

In China, the Shanghai Composite edged down 0.09% to close at 3 455, while the Shenzhen Component declined 0.61% to 10 413. The pullback followed a strong prior session, with investors locking in profits—particularly in high-growth technology stocks—amid renewed policy uncertainty and a cautious outlook.

In commodity markets, WTI crude oil futures hovered around $65.50 per barrel on Wednesday as traders awaited the upcoming OPEC+ output decision. The group is expected to increase production by 411 000 barrels per day in August, bringing the total supply increase for 2025 to 1.78 million bpd—equivalent to over 1.50% of global demand. Meanwhile, gold held firm above $3 330 per ounce, extending gains from the previous session. The precious metal continued to benefit from sustained US dollar weakness, which has been under pressure due to fiscal concerns and uncertainty surrounding global trade policy.