Fundamental Research
Anglo American Plc
Analyst thesis
Our recommendation is based on:
Copper-leveraged portfolio into electrification: Anglo American’s increasing focus on copper and premium iron ore, supported by the proposed merger with Teck Resources, positions it as a key beneficiary of structurally higher copper demand driven by grid investment, renewables, electric vehicles (EVs), and data centres.
Structural copper deficit supports pricing: Industry analysis suggests global copper demand could grow by 40%–60% over the next two decades, with a sizeable supply gap set to emerge due to permitting delays, grade decline, and underinvestment constraining new projects. This dynamic underpins a supportive long-term price deck for tier-one producers such as Anglo.
Portfolio simplification driving quality: Excluding De Beers and other non-core assets, representing lower quality and lower margin businesses, Anglo’s core copper and premium iron ore businesses delivered strong margins in FY25, reinforcing a higher-return, lower-volatility earnings base.
De Beers is a clear drag: De Beers’ loss-making performance and impairment in FY25 weighed on group returns. Management’s plan to separate or divest the underperforming diamonds business serves as a visible value-unlock catalyst, enabling investors to re‑rate Anglo based on its core copper and iron ore franchise.