Eli Lilly and Company

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on: 

• LLY leads the GLP-1 obesity and diabetes market, with Zepbound and Mounjaro driving international growth, strong market share gains, and expanding payer access. The imminent launch of Orforglipron (oral GLP-1) is expected to expand patient base and significantly accelerate growth, positioning LLY for a second wave of adoption.
• Advancing competitors (e.g., Novo Nordisk, Pfizer), which could pressure margins and erode long-term forecasts.
• Drug pricing reform efforts in the US/EU are a major overhang, potentially capping pricing power and limiting revenue from high-profile therapies, requiring close monitoring of reimbursement, access, and margin trends.
• Eli Lilly NTM P:E is currently expensive when compared to peers and to its own 10-year historical average P:E. The current share price therefore, seems to be pricing in its better placement compared to peers for future growth, its large scale, deep drug pipeline, domestic manufacturing pivot, and leadership in obesity treatments.