Glencore plc

Analyst thesis

Our recommendation is based on:

• Diversified base, copper-led earnings: Glencore (GLN) produces and markets more than 60 commodities from around 40 industrial assets across more than 30 countries. Copper is the largest and highest-margin earnings contributor, accounting for 47% of industrial adjusted EBITDA in 1H26 at a 52% mining margin. Zinc, nickel, cobalt, ferroalloys, and coal provide further diversification, helping to smooth the commodity cycle.

• Copper is the growth engine: Production is guided to rise 29% from 852 kilotonnes (kt) in FY25 to 1.1 megatonnes (Mt) in 2029, exceeding 1 Mt by end-2028 and reaching c. 1.6 Mt by 2035. Growth is brownfield and self-funded. It is expected to come from the ramp-up of African assets, where copper output rose 66% in 1H26, as well as the Alumbrera restart, Collahuasi leaching and Coroccohuayco projects; all expected to contribute from 2028, supporting GLN's expansion towards a first-quartile cost position.

• The world's largest commodities trader provides a natural hedge: Marketing trades third-party volumes alongside GLN's own volumes, earning on location, timing and quality spreads rather than price levels. The Marketing segment contributed $3.6 billion, or 36% of group adjusted EBITDA, in 1H26 using minimal capital. From FY23 to FY25, industrial adjusted EBITDA fell 25%, while marketing earnings fluctuated within a 15% range, stabilising group cash flow through the cycle.

• Re-rating from a coal-focused to copper-led business: Coal’s contribution has fallen from 35% of industrial adjusted EBITDA in FY25 to 30% in 1H26, and will keep shrinking as copper’s contribution grows 29% to 2029. Coalexposed mining companies trade at persistent discounts, so the shift in mix is itself a re-rating catalyst, with cash flow from coal funding the copper build-out.