Gold Fields

Analyst thesis
Our recommendation is based on:
•    Macroeconomic tailwinds have driven gold prices higher in 2025, underpinned by intensifying global economic uncertainty, disruptive trade policy shifts, surging geopolitical tensions, aggressive gold buying by central banks, weakening US dollar, and monetary easing as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
•    Gold Fields’ valuation looks stretched, with its EV/EBITDA multiple at 6.5x - around 38% above the 10-year average of 4.7x and near prior peak levels, potentially indicating that much of the bullish outlook is already reflected in the share price.
•    Although the share price of Gold Fields seems extended, the price of gold could have further upside from:
o    Runaway debt levels in the US, stagflation, further central bank gold purchases seeking to diversify away from the US dollar, a prolonged weakening of the US dollar, escalating geopolitical tensions, and further disruption to global trade from tariffs.