Investment Idea: Shoprite

This is the pre-eminent food retailer in South Africa, with the best margins and the most effective management, but its sheer size limits the potential for above industry growth (even market share gains will become limited) and its valuation is full. Key points in the investment thesis are:

• Good revenue growth of 12%, however, this was mainly driven by acquisitions as like-for-like revenue growth was 6.3%. Internal selling price inflation of 5.8% implies a small increase in like-for-like volume growth
• The impact of loadshedding is improving as the company adapts as well as less loadshedding hours. FY24 had approximately R1bn in loadshedding costs and this is expected to decrease substantially in FY25 if the utility continues its current path.
• Net store expansion of 201 stores in the 2024 calendar year and a planned 195 new stores in 2025.

Our research supports a hold recommendation.