Global markets rise on AI and tech optimism despite mixed economic signals

US stocks ended higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting fresh record highs above 6 500, the Nasdaq 100 up 0.60%, and the Dow gaining 72 points. Strong economic data and ongoing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence underpinned sentiment, with Nvidia in focus after reporting a 56% surge in quarterly revenue that slightly topped expectations. The company struck a more cautious note on future demand by excluding potential China sales from its outlook, but analysts largely maintained confidence in AI-driven growth, with several raising price targets. The broader tech sector showed strength, with Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all advancing. Meanwhile, recent estimates put US GDP growth at 3.30% in the second quarter, while jobless claims came in lower than expected, easing recession concerns.

European stocks ended mixed on Thursday as investors weighed US tech earnings and the outlook for global interest rates. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 edged above the flatline to close at 5 393 points, while the pan-European STOXX 600 slipped 0.20% to 554. Nvidia’s better-than-expected results reinforced optimism around AI, though its cautious guidance reminded investors that growth could moderate from recent peaks.

On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank’s July meeting minutes revealed a divided stance on inflation. Some policymakers argued that risks were tilted to the downside over the next two years, citing weaker growth prospects and the impact of US tariffs, while others warned that risks could still skew higher in the longer term, given uncertainty around energy prices and currency moves. Although inflation is currently at target, officials noted that this was partly due to temporary factors that could reverse, keeping the debate alive over whether the ECB should prioritise caution or vigilance. The central bank left rates unchanged in July, effectively drawing a line under its latest easing cycle after eight cuts over the past year, which pushed borrowing costs to their lowest levels since November 2022. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, while the deposit facility rate holds at 2%.

Chinese equities extended their rally, lifted by easing US–China trade tensions, expectations of fresh stimulus, and supportive flows from retail investors and margin buying. Gains were broad-based, with artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks leading the advance as renewed investor interest outweighed concerns about weak fundamentals. The momentum pushed the Shanghai Composite up 1.14% to 3 844 points and the Shenzhen Component 2.25% higher to 12 571, leaving both benchmarks on track for solid monthly gains.

The offshore yuan also strengthened for a fifth straight session, reaching its strongest level since November 2024. The move was underpinned by a firm central bank fixing - its strongest in nearly a year and well above market estimates. A softer US dollar added to the yuan’s strength, as traders increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets now pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction in September, up from 82% a week earlier. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting PMI data due over the weekend for clearer signals on China’s economic outlook amid lingering uncertainty around trade relations with the US.

South African markets finished Thursday on a cautious note, with the FTSE/SE All Share Index edging down 0.14% to 101 859 points and the Top 40 Index slipping 0.13% as investors digested domestic economic data and earnings updates. The rand held steady at 17.66 against the US dollar following the release of domestic producer inflation figures. Stats SA reported that producer inflation rose to 1.50% year-on-year in July 2025, up from 0.60% in June, slightly above expectations, while the Producer Price Index climbed 0.70% month-on-month. Investors are now focused on upcoming economic indicators, including money supply, private sector credit, trade balance, and the budget balance, for clearer signals on the health of South Africa’s economy.

In commodities, gold surged to a five-week high, closing at $3 452.60 per ounce, up 1.40% from the previous session, supported by a softer US dollar and renewed investor concerns over Federal Reserve independence, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Oil prices also gained, with Brent crude rising 0.80% to trade at $68.62 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up 0.70% to trade at $64.60, following reports of declining US crude inventories and heightened geopolitical tensions after President Trump criticised recent Russian missile attacks on Ukraine, stoking concerns over potential sanctions.