Melrose Arch

Feel free to reach out to PSG Wealth Manager  Patrick Duggan  directly.

With December upon us and just one month left in 2025, there is already plenty for investors to reflect on.

The year began with the inauguration of President Trump, capping a year of elections that saw significant political change across the globe. What followed was a period of uncertainty and theatre around US tariffs that sent markets into a month of turbulence. Elsewhere, peace deals have begun to de-escalate conflicts that dominated headlines for years, while the AI revolution has continued to reshape industries and capture imaginations.

Despite periods of genuine chaos (including a sharp market decline that saw global equities fall by around -19%), it looks likely that 2025 will deliver another year of above-average returns for equity investors. This follows two excellent years of returns in 2023 and 2024.

We know from our conversations with clients that the period from March to April was an uncomfortable period for many. While these periods of decline and uncertainty are always unpleasant at the time, they remind us of the patience and discipline required to become successful long-term investors. The anxiety of early April has rewarded those who stayed invested.

While markets are forward-looking and already concerned about what 2026 could bring, there is value in pausing to reflect on the past. The events of the past year offer three lessons that can guide us in the years ahead.

#1 Overvalued markets can still grow

At the start of this year, many commentators warned that global markets looked expensive by historical standards. Yet markets (a collection of the great companies and businesses of the world) have continued to deliver returns, reminding us once again that valuation tells us little about timing.

It can be tempting to wait for a better entry point or to reduce exposure to equity assets when prices seem stretched. But markets can remain expensive for years while still rewarding patient investors. Timing the market requires being right twice: when to get out and when to get back in. History suggests this is a game very few win (if any).

#2 Knowing what will happen doesn't tell you how markets will react

The tariff announcements in early April provided a striking lesson in the limits of information.

On the 2^nd of April, the Liberation Day tariffs announcement confirmed what many had expected: sweeping tariffs were on the way. Markets, which had been declining in March, fell sharply as uncertainty took hold. Yet just a few days later, on the 8^th of April, with uncertainty arguably at its peak and no clear resolution in sight, the market quietly found its bottom and began to recover.

Those who knew tariffs were coming had no advantage. The information was widely available. What nobody could know was how and when the market would respond. This is why we focus on planning rather than predicting.

#3 Long-term planning beats short-term prediction

It is rare for the world to undergo a shift as significant as the one unfolding with artificial intelligence (AI). It is genuinely difficult to imagine what daily life will look like in five years, let alone how businesses, industries, and economies will adapt. However, we are confident that the human ingenuity that has seen us adapt and prosper through previous technological revolutions will do so again.

The knock-on effects for financial markets remain equally unknowable. And yet, this uncertainty is not new; it is the permanent condition of investing.

Fortunately, the long-term game we are playing differs from the short-term narrative being reported on by financial media. A solid financial plan (an appropriate asset allocation, a margin of safety, and the discipline to stay invested through volatility) remains the foundation for long-term success. Let us resolve to hold onto this truth, especially when the future feels more uncertain than usual.

In summary, 2025 has reinforced a timeless principle: we cannot predict, but we can prepare. These lessons, earned through a year of turbulence, will steady you when markets next test your resolve.

As we approach the end of another year, let us continue to focus on what we can control: maintaining robust financial plans and practising patient, disciplined investing.

Your year-end financial checklist

As December arrives and the year begins its final act, thoughtful investors turn their attention to a different kind of preparation. While others are distracted by holiday planning and Black Friday sales, the financially literate take time to consider whether any aspects of their financial life need tidying up.

Most of the heavy lifting in financial planning happens in the big decisions you have likely already made. These small year-end actions distinguish good investors from great ones. They are the compound interest of good habits, the quiet discipline that results in peace of mind and financial security.

Five moves that matter

The best investors know that great planning is not built in dramatic moments but in consistent, thoughtful actions. Before the year-end rush begins, here are five actions you can take in December to give you peace of mind during the holidays and help you to start 2026 on the right foot.

1.     Review your insurance and beneficiaries

December is the perfect time to check all your policies and accounts. The beneficiaries you named five years ago might not reflect your current wishes. On the slight chance that the insurer has made an administrative error, you will catch that too. This ten-minute review could save your family the headache of discovering an incorrect beneficiary nomination at claim stage.

2.     Get your paperwork in order

Nobody likes thinking about worst-case scenarios. Having your affairs in order brings peace of mind. Is your will current? Do your loved ones know where to find important documents? Think of this as creating a roadmap for those who might need it. Organisation today prevents chaos tomorrow. One afternoon of sorting could be the greatest gift you give your family.

3.     Review your monthly subscriptions and debit orders

Those small monthly payments have a sneaky way of multiplying. The streaming service you tried once, the gym membership you keep meaning to use, the insurance for the phone you replaced last year. Run through your bank statements and cancel what you are not using. You might be surprised how much you free up for next year's goals. Every rand saved is a rand that can work harder elsewhere.

4.     Plan for major expenses

Look ahead to 2026. What is coming that you already know about? A new car, home repairs, that memorable anniversary trip, university fees? Identifying these expenses now allows you to prepare properly rather than scrambling later. Set up a separate savings pot for each major expense. When the time comes, you will pay with satisfaction rather than stress.

5.     That one thing you have been avoiding

You know what it is. It could be consolidating old pension pots, setting up that trust, or having the money conversation with your adult children. Whatever you have been putting off, December is your permission slip to tackle it. The relief you will feel heading into the new year will far outweigh the discomfort of dealing with it now.

Small actions, big impact

You do not need to tackle everything at once. Completing two or three of these items puts you ahead of most investors who let the year slip away without review. Choose the ones that resonate with your current situation and start there.

The fact that you are thinking about these matters while others are thinking only about Christmas lunch and shopping says something important about your financial maturity. You understand that small actions compound into significant results.

The financially literate do not need perfect execution. They need consistent attention to what matters.

If you would like help working through any of these year-end considerations, we are here to guide you.

Thank you

We wish you a restful holiday season and hope the coming weeks bring time with the people who matter most. Whatever 2026 has in store, we will navigate it together.

We thank you for the opportunity to guide you and your family. It is our privilege to serve you, and we look forward to working with you for many years to come.

Season’s greetings,

The PSG Wealth Melrose Arch team

Kindly note that our offices will be closed at midday on the 24^th of December 2025 and will reopen on the 5^th of January 2026.