August 2024
Franske Neiteler CFA®
PSG Pretoria East, Wealth Manager: Securities
With artificial intelligence (AI) being one of the largest drivers behind global stock market performance over the past 12 months, one cannot help to ponder on the sustainability of the current trajectory, as well as where the future opportunities will arise. One of the key factors in ensuring sustainable share price appreciation is accompanying earnings growth. To date, the largest beneficiaries of this newly adopted technology have been the semiconductor hardware designers and manufacturers, as the so-called hyperscalers Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta have undertaken record levels of capital spending to expand their cloud and artificial intelligence hardware and software capacity.
Feel free to reach out to PSG Wealth Manager Franske Neiteler directly.
With generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) as the most widely adopted example of artificial intelligence, this could be the future opportunity for companies to monetise their newly built capabilities. Generative AI is trained on large amounts of data to develop relationships and patterns enabling it to learn and deliver an output in the form of text, images, video, code and many more. This effectively enables computers to augment human ability to generate information and create content. A basic example of this is the ability for a generative AI model to be able to create a song or video based purely on text input guiding it to a certain theme or script.
Figure 1: Generative AI inputs and outputs
Source: Nvidia investor presentation
According to Bloomberg, generative AI will be able to create up to US$1.3 trillion in revenue (10-12% of total tech spending) by 2032 – in hardware, software, services, advertisements, gaming and more – as businesses transform how they operate and supercharge products and services.
Figure 2: Generative AI Spending
Sources: Bloomberg Intelligence, IDC, eMarketer, Statista
In PwC’s recent global artificial intelligence study they published several key applications for the use of generative artificial intelligence that could transform our daily lives. We highlight only some of the most widely adopted examples below:
Bloomberg Intelligence compiled market data to determine which of these categories could potentially see the largest growth rate for the 9-year period between 2023 and 2032. As noted in Figure 3, it is clear that the current largest market as of 2023 is the cloud and storage infrastructure market, as these so-called hyperscalers are building out capacity to handle large-scale generative AI workloads. Although infrastructure is still forecast to be the largest market by revenue by 2032, there are several other segments to show higher growth, as generative AI enables companies to increase profits by adding efficiency to their business models. Of these, the sectors showing the highest growth potential are drug discovery software, AI-based cybersecurity spending, sale of virtual goods and game design software. The next leg for growth in the generative AI market will have to be driven by these subsectors, as pharmaceutical companies, software designers and cybersecurity companies (only to name a few) make use of this newly found technology to optimise their business models, ultimately leading to higher profit margins and increased profitability.
Figure 3: Generative AI Revenue Potential
Profitability has been evident by looking at results of the artificial intelligence infrastructure suppliers over the last few quarters. As with all previous technological or industrial revolutions, the jury is always out on the sustainability of a new-found technology and which sectors will ultimately benefit the most over the long term. One thing is for certain: artificial intelligence will ultimately change the way we spend our recreational time, as well as how businesses operate in the future, with some of the abovementioned sectors proving to be the next winners in the race to ultimately monetise artificial intelligence.
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