US markets dive amid growing recession fears and uncertainty over Trump’s economic policies

Analyst thesis
Our recommendation is based on:
•    Macroeconomic tailwinds have driven gold prices higher in 2025, underpinned by intensifying global economic uncertainty, disruptive trade policy shifts, surging geopolitical tensions, aggressive gold buying by central banks, weakening US dollar, and monetary easing as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
•    Gold Fields’ valuation looks stretched, with its EV/EBITDA multiple at 6.5x - around 38% above the 10-year average of 4.7x and near prior peak levels, potentially indicating that much of the bullish outlook is already reflected in the share price.
•    Although the share price of Gold Fields seems extended, the price of gold could have further upside from:
o    Runaway debt levels in the US, stagflation, further central bank gold purchases seeking to diversify away from the US dollar, a prolonged weakening of the US dollar, escalating geopolitical tensions, and further disruption to global trade from tariffs.  

• Analyst thesis Our recommendation is based on:
  • Microsoft Azure is benefiting from the rapid adoption of multi-cloud strategies, while Azure Local (formerly Azure Stack HCI), and Azure Arc strengthen Microsoft’s hybrid control plane across on-premises and cloud environments.
  • Microsoft’s broad product range drives a strong subscription model with annuity-type revenue and customer loyalty supported by a strong moat (high switching costs, innovation, scale, network effect, and brand). This is evident in the high and stable margins it achieves over the long term.
  • While Microsoft shares trade at a premium relative to peers, this valuation is supported by its superior organic revenue growth, strong free cash flow generation, and a leading cloud platform.
  • Microsoft is well placed to significantly benefit from AI.

• Latest company and market insights: Key highlights In this report, we review the latest management statement released for the first quarter that ended 30 June 2025.
• Financial results at a glance: 
  • Net asset value (NAV) as of 30 June 2025: €6.6 billion, reflecting a compound growth rate of 8.6% per annum in euro terms since March 2009, inclusive of dividends paid. This is higher than the 5.2% average rate of South Africa inflation over the same period, positioning RNI as a long-term, inflation-beating investment and also being a Rand hedge.
  • Quarter-on-quarter change: NAV decreased by 4.6% due to declines in the estimated fair value of larger investments and currency weakness in sterling and the US dollar, reducing the euro value of certain assets and liabilities.
  • NAV per Share: €36.30 as of 30 June 2025, a 24% discount (previous: €38.04 as at 31 March 2025, a discount of 40%).
  • Listed investments: €121 million, making up 1.8% of NAV.
  • Unlisted investments: €4 682 million, not considering the PICG transaction, making up 70% of NAV, with €3 432 million (52%) in PICG. Note: The unlisted section will appear materially different once the PICG transaction is completed, as the cash received will be transferred from unlisted investments to liquid cash holdings.
  • Cash and liquid funds: €1 941 million, making up 29% of NAV, up from €1 819 million as at 31 March 2025.
  • Investment activity: €293 million committed to new/existing investments in the quarter, with €21 million funded.
  • Post 30 June 2025 highlights: Agreement reached to sell 100% holding in Pension Insurance Corporation Group Limited to Athora Holding Ltd, expected to close in early 2026.