30
November 2023
OECD revises global growth lower
Adriaan Pask, Chief Investment Officer
PSG Wealth
Market commentary
Markets closed mixed on Wednesday after the OECD revised their global economic growth forecasts lower for this year. “Global growth is set to remain modest due to the impact of monetary policy tightening, weak trade and lower business and consumer confidence, OECD said in its November Economic Outlook. Global growth forecasts were revised lower for this year to 2.90% (vs 3% seen early) and were kept at 2.70% for 2024. Growth is set to pick up to 3% in 2025,” Trading Economics added.
European markets closed higher “as regional CPI prints extended evidence of disinflation in the continent. Preliminary figures for Germany and Spain pointed to a bigger-than-expected cool-down in inflation, prompting investors to raise bets the ECB could start cutting interest rates next year.”
Wall Street was trading slightly higher at 20h20 on Wednesday, even after Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said “talking about rate cuts is premature and the Fed should not take another rate hike off the table. Comments from other Fed officials early in the week have raised bets the central bank is done with interest rate increases and it could start cutting interest rates next year. On the data front, the second estimate showed the US economy expanded 5.20% in Q3, higher than 4.90% in the advance estimate while initial figures showed a substantial 4.10% gain in corporate profits in Q3,” reported Trading Economics.
Losses in Vodacom and Super Group caused the local bourse to close down by almost 0.50% yesterday. Sentiment was also impacted after Eskom announced that it would need to push load shedding to higher stages due to continued challenges at its generation fleet.
The Hang Seng fell by 2.08% on Wednesday, “pressured by a more than 12% plunge in Meituan shares after the food-delivery giant issued a growth warning. Meantime, Alibaba Group sank 2.20% following an internal memo from billionaire Jack Ma that urged the company to launch a fundamental change,” stated Trading Economics. Japan’s Nikkei closed down by 0.26% after traders took profits after the recent November rally.
Gold continued to trade higher reaching $2 045.07 an ounce at 20h30, while Brent crude traded at $82.78 a barrel.
Navigation
Market indicators
select a tab to navigate
| Date | Index | Current Level | 1 Day Move | 1 Month Move | 6 Month Move | 1 Year Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-26 | ALSI | 74329.37 | -0.25 | 2.56 | 7.91 | -0.77 |
| 2024-04-26 | Basic minerals | 45037.83 | 3.20 | 9.24 | 11.78 | -5.02 |
| 2024-04-26 | Fin + Ind 30 | 9544.03 | -0.39 | 0.62 | 7.81 | 2.18 |
| 2024-04-26 | Financial | 38882.99 | -0.22 | -0.77 | 2.92 | 8.03 |
| 2024-04-26 | Industrial index | 109125.97 | -1.36 | 1.92 | 9.68 | -1.10 |
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Collective investment schemes
Local funds
| ASISA category | Fund name | NAV (Rands) at 26 Apr 2024 | Performance –As at 2024/03/31 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |||
| South Africa - Equity - General | PSG Equity Fund Class A | 16.30 | 5.43 | 15.72 | 9.73 | 12.71 |
| PSG Equity Fund Class A | 16.30 | 5.43 | 15.72 | 9.73 | 12.71 | |
| PSG Equity Fund Class E | 16.29 | 4.33 | 15.16 | 9.79 | 8.58 | |
| PSG Equity Fund Class F | 16.35 | 5.91 | 16.25 | 10.23 | 9.55 | |
| PSG SA Equity Class F | 1.52 | 2.14 | 15.97 | 8.69 | 6.79 | |
| PSG Wealth Creator Fund of Funds Class D | 51.28 | 6.61 | 9.40 | 10.37 | 11.86 | |
| South Africa - Multi Asset - Flexible | PSG Flexible Fund Class A | 7.83 | 5.12 | 14.65 | 9.77 | 11.16 |
| PSG Flexible Fund Class A | 7.83 | 5.12 | 14.65 | 9.77 | 11.16 | |
| PSG Flexible Fund Class E | 7.84 | 5.40 | 14.96 | 10.06 | 9.88 | |
| South Africa - Multi Asset - High Equity | PSG Balanced Fund Class A | 94.92 | 4.85 | 13.93 | 10.11 | 12.69 |
| PSG Balanced Fund Class A | 94.92 | 4.85 | 13.93 | 10.11 | 12.69 | |
| PSG Balanced Fund Class E | 95.00 | 5.45 | 14.59 | 10.74 | 9.56 | |
| PSG Wealth Moderate Fund of Funds Class D | 40.36 | 9.93 | 10.12 | 9.17 | 10.72 | |
| South Africa - Multi Asset - Low Equity | PSG Stable Fund Class A | 1.62 | 5.23 | 9.90 | 7.44 | 8.23 |
| PSG Stable Fund Class A | 1.62 | 5.23 | 9.90 | 7.44 | 8.23 | |
| PSG Stable Fund Class E | 1.62 | 5.83 | 10.54 | 8.05 | 7.95 | |
| PSG Wealth Preserver Fund of Funds Class D | 24.44 | 8.61 | 8.68 | 7.73 | 9.01 | |
| South Africa - Multi Asset - Income | PSG Diversified Income Fund Class A | 1.31 | 7.40 | 8.23 | 7.82 | 7.83 |
| PSG Diversified Income Fund Class A | 1.31 | 7.40 | 8.23 | 7.82 | 7.83 | |
| PSG Diversified Income Fund Class E | 1.31 | 8.07 | 8.84 | 8.39 | 8.26 | |
| PSG Wealth Income Fund of Funds Class D | 12.38 | 7.81 | 7.50 | 7.01 | 7.79 | |
| South Africa - Interest Bearing - Short Term | PSG Income Fund Class A | 1.08 | 7.76 | 6.73 | 7.28 | 7.10 |
| PSG Income Fund Class A | 1.08 | 7.76 | 6.73 | 7.28 | 7.10 | |
| PSG Income Fund Class E | 1.08 | 8.07 | 7.04 | 7.59 | 7.76 | |
| PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund of Funds Class D | 1.02 | 8.96 | 6.59 | 6.49 | 6.71 | |
| South Africa - Interest Bearing - Money Market | PSG Money Market Fund Class A | 1.00 | 8.28 | 5.98 | 5.83 | 7.94 |
| PSG Money Market Fund Class A | 1.00 | 8.28 | 5.98 | 5.83 | 7.94 | |
| PSG Money Market Fund Class F | 1.00 | 8.59 | 6.26 | 6.10 | 5.28 | |
| South African - Multi Asset - Low Equity | PSG Investment Management Cautious Fund of Funds Class D | 1.29 | 5.22 | 9.01 | — | 9.62 |
| PSG Investment Management Cautious Fund of Funds Class D | 1.29 | 5.22 | 9.01 | — | 9.62 | |
| South African - Multi Asset - High Equity | PSG Investment Management Growth Fund of Funds Class D | 1.47 | 2.95 | 11.00 | — | 11.35 |
| PSG Investment Management Growth Fund of Funds Class D | 1.47 | 2.95 | 11.00 | — | 11.35 | |
| South African - Multi Asset - Income | PSG Investment Management Multi-Asset Income Fund of Funds Class D | 1.13 | 6.96 | 7.34 | — | 7.57 |
| PSG Investment Management Multi-Asset Income Fund of Funds Class D | 1.13 | 6.96 | 7.34 | — | 7.57 | |
Performance data on local funds is shown up to the last market close minus 1 day.
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Global funds
Through our tried-and tested investment philosophy, we have built competitive global solutions to help clients achieve their investment goals.
The following funds are rand-denominated, but invest internationally:
| ASISA category | Fund name | NAV (Rands) at 26 Apr 2024 | Performance –As at 2024/03/31 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |||
| Global - Equity - General | PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund Class A | 4.84 | 13.50 | 18.16 | 13.88 | 13.07 |
| PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund Class A | 4.84 | 13.50 | 18.16 | 13.88 | 13.07 | |
| PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund Class E | 5.01 | 14.16 | 18.84 | 14.44 | 12.79 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Creator Feeder Fund Class D | 4.57 | 31.95 | 14.40 | 16.71 | 15.72 | |
| Global - Multi Asset - Flexible | PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class A | 3.75 | 11.50 | 15.71 | 13.27 | 12.83 |
| PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class A | 3.75 | 11.50 | 15.71 | 13.27 | 12.83 | |
| PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class B | 3.94 | 12.14 | 16.38 | 13.77 | 13.33 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class D | 4.77 | 16.82 | 8.82 | 11.36 | 11.51 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Moderate Feeder Fund Class D | 4.88 | 19.10 | 10.30 | 10.72 | 12.77 | |
| Global - Multi Asset - Low Equity | PSG Wealth Global Preserver Feeder Fund Class D | 1.54 | 15.10 | 9.24 | 8.30 | 7.48 |
| PSG Wealth Global Preserver Feeder Fund Class D | 1.54 | 15.10 | 9.24 | 8.30 | 7.48 | |
Performance data on offshore funds is shown up to the last market close minus 2 days.
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Invest in other currencies
The following funds invest internationally using foreign currency
| ASISA category | Fund name | NAV (Rands) at 25 Apr 2024 | Performance –As at 2024/03/31 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |||
| EAA Fund GBP Cautious Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (GBP) Class D | 2.04 | 6.23 | 2.28 | 2.49 | 5.01 |
| PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (GBP) Class D | 2.04 | 6.23 | 2.28 | 2.49 | 5.01 | |
| EAA Fund GBP Flexible Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (GBP) Class D | 3.69 | 7.61 | 3.14 | 6.39 | 9.38 |
| PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (GBP) Class D | 3.69 | 7.61 | 3.14 | 6.39 | 9.38 | |
| EAA Fund Global Flex-Cap Equity | PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund Class A | 2.18 | 6.31 | 8.80 | 8.10 | 5.87 |
| PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund Class A | 2.18 | 6.31 | 8.80 | 8.10 | 5.87 | |
| PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund Class B | 2.25 | 6.92 | 9.42 | 8.72 | 7.09 | |
| EAA Fund Global Large-Cap Blend Equity | PSG Wealth Global Creator Fund of Funds Class D | 2.80 | 23.38 | 5.16 | 10.46 | 9.82 |
| PSG Wealth Global Creator Fund of Funds Class D | 2.80 | 23.38 | 5.16 | 10.46 | 9.82 | |
| EAA Fund USD Cautious Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (USD) Class D | 1.65 | 7.71 | 0.33 | 2.30 | 3.54 |
| PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (USD) Class D | 1.65 | 7.71 | 0.33 | 2.30 | 3.54 | |
| EAA Fund USD Flexible Allocation | PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund Class A | 18.91 | 4.80 | 6.92 | 7.47 | 5.79 |
| PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund Class A | 18.91 | 4.80 | 6.92 | 7.47 | 5.79 | |
| PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund Class B | 20.03 | 5.29 | 7.42 | 8.05 | 6.41 | |
| PSG Investment Management Global Flexible Fund of Funds (Dollar) | 1.55 | 7.92 | -1.45 | 3.38 | 2.65 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (USD) Class D | 2.99 | 9.46 | 0.13 | 5.54 | 7.87 | |
| EAA Fund USD Moderate Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Moderate Fund of Funds Class D | 1.97 | 11.27 | 1.35 | 4.74 | 5.25 |
| PSG Wealth Global Moderate Fund of Funds Class D | 1.97 | 11.27 | 1.35 | 4.74 | 5.25 | |
Performance data on offshore funds is shown up to the last market close minus 2 days.
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Non-Collective investment schemes
House view equity portfolios
| Fund display name | Performance –As at 2024/04/26 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |
| PSG Wealth Income Growth Equity Portfolio | 1.39 | 4.52 | -0.71 | 1.17 |
| PSG Wealth Offshore Equity Portfolio (USD) | 11.12 | 4.15 | 9.96 | 11.59 |
| PSG Wealth SA Equity Portfolio | -5.21 | 1.25 | 0.11 | 2.73 |
| PSG Wealth SA Property Equity Portfolio | 12.07 | 7.04 | -2.81 | -3.33 |
* PSG Wealth equity portfolio performance are shown gross of management fees, but net of brokerage and other trading costs.
The House view portfolios are bespoke solution portfolios and not part of the Collective Investment Schemes’ portfolios.
Recent investment ideas
Aspen
Aspen released decent results for their FY23 period, and management indicated a more bullish outlook for the coming years due to negotiated contracts in the sterile business being revised upwards from R2 billion to R8 billion into FY25.
1. Key points in the investment thesis are:
- Manufacturing segment is expected to contribute an additional R2 billion and R4 billion in revenue in 2024 and 2025 respectively, with up to R8 billion in 2026 (based on spare sterile capacity). This is off the base of R11.3 billion reported in the segment FY23.
- Execution risks as the company relies on future contracts to drive growth. Managements outlook beyond 2025 is optimistic, but achievable. Contracts will have to be negotiated on top of the Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Viatris and Amgen ones that have been signed.
- Forex headwinds have impacted the business and are uncertain going forward.
- The company is trading in line with its 3-year average multiples and could outperform if they execute on their guidance. The double-digit organic growth expected in the commercial segment is optimistic.
Our research supports a hold recommendation.
Please join us on Thursday at 11h30 for our Microsoft Teams Q&A sessions. Click here to join. <https://www.psg.co.za/wealthonline#investment-research>
Renergen
On 31 October 2023, Renergen released its half-year 2024 financial results, which were characterised by the following:
- Revenue increased by more than 100% from R1.2 million to R23.8 million as phase 1 liquid natural gas (LNG) production ramped up, increasing by 88% from 1Q24 to 2Q24 to a total of 2 386 tonnes of LNG for the half-year.
- The loss for the period however increased by 77% to R43.5 million as operating expenses increased due to less being capitalised as assets became ready for use, combined with the increase associated with the ramp-up of operations.
- A leak in the helium cold box resulted in lower-than-expected production volumes. Management also brought forward annual maintenance which is expected to negatively impact the next quarter’s LNG production.
- We lowered our intrinsic value to R7.8 (22% lower) due to the operational and funding delays, a larger-than-expected increase in expenses and the increased likelihood of ownership dilution.
Our research supports a sell recommendation.
Please join us on Thursday at 11h30 for our Microsoft Teams Q&A sessions. Click here to join. <https://www.psg.co.za/wealthonline#investment-research>
Sibanye
On 25 October 2023, Sibanye announced that it had entered Section 189 consultations regarding four shafts and associated services at its SA Platinum Group Metals (PGM) operations.
- The four shafts affected are:
- Simunye shaft, Kroondal
- 4 Belt shaft, Marikana (4B)
- Rowland shaft, Marikana
- Siphumelele shaft, Rustenburg
- The Simunye shaft had already ceased operations in 4Q22, while the 4 Belt shaft faced closure due to reaching the end of its life.
- The proposed restructuring and shaft closures could potentially affect 3 500 employees and 595 contractors. However, these steps would be necessary to keep mines profitable.
- We have adjusted our valuation to the lower end guidance for the SA PGM operations and lowered the basket prices in line with the continued decline in PGM prices. As a result, our intrinsic value has changed to R32.
Our research supports a buy recommendation.
Please join us on Thursday at 11h30 for our Microsoft Teams Q&A sessions. Click here to join. <https://www.psg.co.za/wealthonline#investment-research>
Economic Calendar
View the Economic Calendar
Corporate Actions
| Date | Company | Share code | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 December 2023 | Letshego Holdings Namibia Limited | LHN | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | London Finance and Investment Group Plc | LNF | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Metrofile Holdings Limited | MFL | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Mix Telematics Limited | MIX | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Mr. Price Group Limited | MRP | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Mustek Limited | MST | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Motus Holdings Limited | MTH | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Limited | MTM | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Ninety One Plc | N91 | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Namibia Asset Management Ltd | NAM | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Nictus Holdings Limited | NHL | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Newpark REIT Limited | NRL | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Netcare Limited Cumulative, Non-Redeemable, Non Participating, Non-Convertible Preference Shares | NTCP | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | NU-WORLD Holdings Limited | NWL | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Ninety One Limited | NY1 | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Octodec Investments Limited (REIT) | OCT | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Old Mutual Limited | OMU | Cash Dividend |
| 06 December 2023 | Oasis Crescent Property Fund Limited | OAS | DRIP |
The information above is to the best of our knowledge correct.
The Corporate Actions are updated weekly.
Fund performance
Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium-term to long-term investments. The value of participatory interests (units) may go down as well as up and past performance is not a guide to future performance. Collective Investment Schemes are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on request from PSG Collective Investments (RF) Limited. Commission and incentives may be paid, and if so, are included in the overall costs. Forward pricing is used. The Portfolios may be capped at any time in order for them to be managed in accordance with their mandate.
Performance is calculated for the portfolio and individual investor performance may differ as a result thereof. Different classes of participatory interest can apply to these portfolios and are subject to different fees, charges and possibly dividend withholding tax and will thus have differing performances. Annualised performances show longer term performance rescaled over a 12-month period. Individual performance may differ as a result of initial fees, the actual investment date, the date of reinvestment and dividend withholding tax. The portfolio is valued at 15h00 daily. Income distributions are net of any applicable taxes. Investment performance data is for illustrative purposes only. Actual performance figures are available on request. Always refer to the fund fact sheet (Minimum Disclosure Document) for full details, fees and risks of the fund.
Stay Informed
Sign up for our newsletters and receive information on finance.