US stocks hit new highs as strong jobs data and AI momentum lift tech sector

• The latest financial information released by Sibanye Stillwater is the first-quarter operating update for the period ending 31 March 2025. Below are the key financial and operational performance highlights:

  • Group adjusted EBITDA surged by 89% to R4.1 billion, reflecting a strong overall performance.
  • Gold operations saw EBITDA climb 178% to R1.8 billion, despite a 15% drop in gold production, as higher gold prices offset lower output. However, gold operations remain costly, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rising 17% from $2 039/oz in Q1 2024 to $2 392/oz in Q1 2025.
  • South African platinum group metals (PGM) operations benefited from cost-cutting measures, boosting EBITDA by 74% to R2.5 billion, even as production slipped by 3% over the period.
  • US PGM segment production fell 41% following the Stillwater West mine being placed on care and maintenance. This led to a negative EBITDA of R172 million for Q1 2025, compared to a R609 million profit in Q1 2024.
  • Finance costs increased by 8% to R1.2 billion, despite a rate-cutting environment, as the company’s debt levels remain high.

  Strategic developments:

  • The Keliber lithium and GalliCam projects were awarded the Strategic Projects status by the European Commission, underscoring their importance to Europe’s critical raw materials supply. This designation helped Sibanye secure additional funding for these initiatives.
  • Possible benefit of the S45X credit to the US PGM operations for FY25 to the amount of $60 million, with a further amount of $119 million for FY23 and FY24. Receipt expected in FY26 and FY27.

• Analyst Thesis
  • We remain positive on MTN's earnings outlook due to the following reasons:
  • MTN’s recent price increases in Nigeria, implemented to counter inflation and higher network expenses, are expected to be fully reflect from the Q2 FY2025 results onwards.
  • MTN targets R7–8 billion in cost savings by 2026 through digitalisation and operational efficiencies which support margin expansion.
  • Nigeria inflation is projected to decline to 22.1% by end-2025, easing operating costs and improving consumer affordability.
  • Higher oil production should improve Nigeria’s fiscal and FX position, supporting MTN Nigeria’s operating outlook.
  • The cedi’s appreciation supports earnings quality and enhances cash repatriation from Ghana.
  • The $4.2 billion Turkcell lawsuit poses a notable risk, however, MTN’s underlying momentum and long-term growth drivers continue to support our investment case.
  Our research supports a hold recommendation.

1. Aspen is facing heightened uncertainty due to the unresolved dispute over its mRNA manufacturing contract, which could reduce EBITDA by up to R2 billion. The potential risk of a R770 million impairment further weighs on near-term profitability. Meanwhile, delays in regulatory approvals for insulin products are also pushing back expected revenue contributions, despite secured take-or-pay agreements.
2. Key points in the investment thesis are:

• Aspen is facing increased regulatory scrutiny in the US following an FDA warning letter, which has resulted in tighter compliance monitoring at a critical manufacturing site. This has elevated external perception risks in the near term specific to Aspen while there is a general drive in the US to move manufacturing domestically.
• Exposure to evolving trade dynamics: Potential tariff developments in the US market could increase cost structures and temporarily challenge export competitiveness in select product categories.
• Aspen is strategically entering the obesity and diabetes treatment markets via its partnership with Eli Lilly (Mounjaro) and plans to manufacture GLP-1 drugs by FY26, positioning it to benefit from rising global demand.
• Following the Sandoz China acquisition, Aspen plans to restructure the business in H2 FY25 to improve flexibility and regulatory readiness.
• Regulatory reforms in South Africa, including SAHPRA’s priority review framework, may accelerate approvals for key medicines and support Aspen’s local manufacturing strategy.

APN has an Intrinsic value of R131 per share (down from R206 previously) and a Hold recommendation.