30
July 2025
Global markets mixed as caution builds ahead of Fed decision
Adriaan Pask
PSG Wealth
US markets closed lower on Tuesday, weighed down by cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and mixed corporate earnings. The S&P 500 slipped 0.30% after briefly touching a record intraday high, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.20% and the Dow Jones fell by 204 points. Investors processed softer job opening and hiring data for June, though consumer confidence in July came in stronger than expected. Trade negotiations between the US and China concluded without a deal, shifting focus to a possible extension of the current tariff truce. While the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, markets are watching closely for guidance on future moves amid easing inflation.
In Europe, equities closed higher, reversing Monday’s losses. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 rose 0.70% and the STOXX 600 added 0.20%, despite pressure from Novo Nordisk shares. The FTSE 100 reached a record high, climbing over 0.5% on strong earnings and improving UK economic sentiment.
Locally, the South African rand weakened ahead of the South African Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday, with analysts widely expecting a 25 basis point cut. The ALSI managed a 0.47% gain for the day. The currency also faced headwinds from unresolved US tariff talks, with a looming 30% duty on South African exports.
In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipped 0.15% as investor concerns grew around the impact of the new US-EU trade pact and the potential for broader global tariffs. US President Trump has floated a 15–20% tariff rate for non-negotiating partners, levels not seen since the 1930s.
Oil markets rallied, with WTI crude surging 3.70% to $69.20 a barrel — its highest level in five weeks. The rally was driven by easing trade tensions and heightened geopolitical risks, boosting expectations for stronger global demand.
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Market indicators
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| Date | Index | Current Level | 1 Day Move | 1 Month Move | 6 Month Move | 1 Year Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-29 | ALSI | 98696.39 | -0.22 | 3.06 | 18.94 | 25.92 |
| 2025-07-29 | Basic minerals | 58200.49 | -0.33 | 10.60 | 39.85 | 35.02 |
| 2025-07-29 | Fin + Ind 30 | 12822.60 | -0.17 | 0.83 | 13.94 | 23.76 |
| 2025-07-29 | Financial | 52336.64 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 9.73 | 15.25 |
| 2025-07-29 | Industrial index | 146847.16 | -0.46 | 1.17 | 17.00 | 29.80 |
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Local funds
| Morningstar Category | Fund name | NAV (Rands) at 25 Jul 2025 | Performance –As at 2025/06/30 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |||
| South African - Multi Asset - Low Equity | PSG Investment Management Cautious Fund of Funds Class D | 1.52 | 16.68 | 12.49 | 13.77 | 11.49 |
| PSG Investment Management Cautious Fund of Funds Class D | 1.52 | 16.68 | 12.49 | 13.77 | 11.49 | |
| PSG Stable Fund Class A | 1.86 | 14.94 | 12.29 | 13.11 | 8.87 | |
| PSG Stable Fund Class E | 1.87 | 15.61 | 12.93 | 13.76 | 8.79 | |
| PSG Wealth Preserver Fund of Funds Class D | 28.04 | 14.99 | 12.39 | 10.83 | 9.43 | |
| South African - Multi Asset - High Equity | PSG Balanced Fund Class A | 116.44 | 19.83 | 17.01 | 19.50 | 13.04 |
| PSG Balanced Fund Class A | 116.44 | 19.83 | 17.01 | 19.50 | 13.04 | |
| PSG Balanced Fund Class E | 116.73 | 20.52 | 17.69 | 20.18 | 10.72 | |
| PSG Investment Management Growth Fund of Funds Class D | 1.93 | 23.11 | 16.05 | 18.81 | 14.49 | |
| PSG Wealth Moderate Fund of Funds Class D | 49.13 | 19.10 | 15.01 | 13.88 | 11.23 | |
| South African - Multi Asset - Income | PSG Diversified Income Fund Class A | 1.39 | 12.23 | 10.26 | 9.53 | 8.12 |
| PSG Diversified Income Fund Class A | 1.39 | 12.23 | 10.26 | 9.53 | 8.12 | |
| PSG Diversified Income Fund Class E | 1.39 | 12.94 | 10.96 | 10.16 | 8.77 | |
| PSG Investment Management Multi-Asset Income Fund of Funds Class D | 1.19 | 11.50 | 9.53 | 8.90 | 8.51 | |
| PSG Wealth Income Fund of Funds Class D | 12.81 | 10.52 | 9.55 | 8.32 | 8.04 | |
| South African - Equity - General | PSG Equity Fund Class A | 20.61 | 20.04 | 18.32 | 22.30 | 13.12 |
| PSG Equity Fund Class A | 20.61 | 20.04 | 18.32 | 22.30 | 13.12 | |
| PSG Equity Fund Class E | 20.72 | 20.48 | 17.78 | 22.12 | 9.95 | |
| PSG Equity Fund Class F | 20.70 | 20.60 | 18.87 | 22.84 | 10.86 | |
| PSG Investment Management Opportunity Equity Fund of Funds Class D | 1.34 | — | — | — | — | |
| PSG Wealth Creator Fund of Funds Class D | 65.77 | 21.15 | 15.85 | 17.27 | 12.60 | |
| South African - Equity - SA General | PSG SA Equity Class F | 2.13 | 28.31 | 20.01 | 25.00 | 9.37 |
| PSG SA Equity Class F | 2.13 | 28.31 | 20.01 | 25.00 | 9.37 | |
| South African - Interest Bearing - SA Money Market | PSG Money Market Fund Class A | 1.00 | 7.78 | 7.64 | 6.08 | 7.94 |
| PSG Money Market Fund Class A | 1.00 | 7.78 | 7.64 | 6.08 | 7.94 | |
| PSG Money Market Fund Class F | 1.00 | 8.09 | 7.95 | 6.37 | 5.58 | |
| South African - Interest Bearing - Short Term | PSG Income Fund Class A | 1.11 | 9.82 | 8.54 | 7.40 | 7.34 |
| PSG Income Fund Class A | 1.11 | 9.82 | 8.54 | 7.40 | 7.34 | |
| PSG Income Fund Class E | 1.10 | 10.15 | 8.86 | 7.72 | 8.01 | |
| PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund of Funds Class D | 1.02 | 8.70 | 8.39 | 6.80 | 6.90 | |
| South African - Interest Bearing - Variable Term | PSG Bond Fund Class A | 1.05 | — | — | — | — |
| PSG Bond Fund Class A | 1.05 | — | — | — | — | |
| South African - Multi Asset - Flexible | PSG Flexible Fund Class A | 9.60 | 17.92 | 16.62 | 20.50 | 11.54 |
| PSG Flexible Fund Class A | 9.60 | 17.92 | 16.62 | 20.50 | 11.54 | |
| PSG Flexible Fund Class E | 9.61 | 18.23 | 16.93 | 20.80 | 10.89 | |
Performance data on local funds is shown up to the last market close minus 1 day.
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Global funds
Through our tried-and tested investment philosophy, we have built competitive global solutions to help clients achieve their investment goals.
The following funds are rand-denominated, but invest internationally:
| Morningstar Category | Fund name | NAV (Rands) at 28 Jul 2025 | Performance –As at 2025/06/30 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |||
| Global - Equity - General | PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund Class A | 5.50 | 12.40 | 15.19 | 18.80 | 12.44 |
| PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund Class A | 5.50 | 12.40 | 15.19 | 18.80 | 12.44 | |
| PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund Class E | 5.72 | 13.04 | 15.86 | 19.32 | 12.14 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Creator Feeder Fund Class D | 5.17 | 8.73 | 16.81 | 11.84 | 14.55 | |
| Global - Multi Asset - Flexible | PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class A | 4.18 | 11.79 | 13.85 | 16.02 | 12.11 |
| PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class A | 4.18 | 11.79 | 13.85 | 16.02 | 12.11 | |
| PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class B | 4.42 | 12.44 | 14.51 | 16.52 | 12.62 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Flexible Feeder Fund Class D | 5.27 | 8.73 | 11.00 | 6.81 | 10.72 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Moderate Feeder Fund Class D | 5.41 | 8.06 | 11.62 | 7.40 | 11.96 | |
| Global - Multi Asset - Low Equity | PSG Wealth Global Preserver Feeder Fund Class D | 1.62 | 5.65 | 8.99 | 4.43 | 6.45 |
| PSG Wealth Global Preserver Feeder Fund Class D | 1.62 | 5.65 | 8.99 | 4.43 | 6.45 | |
Performance data on offshore funds is shown up to the last market close minus 2 days.
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
Invest in other currencies
The following funds invest internationally using foreign currency
| Morningstar Category | Fund name | NAV (Rands) at 25 Jul 2025 | Performance –As at 2025/06/30 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |||
| EAA Fund GBP Cautious Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (GBP) Class D | 2.12 | -0.07 | 2.50 | 1.74 | 4.61 |
| PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (GBP) Class D | 2.12 | -0.07 | 2.50 | 1.74 | 4.61 | |
| EAA Fund GBP Flexible Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (GBP) Class D | 4.07 | 4.44 | 5.37 | 4.53 | 8.95 |
| PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (GBP) Class D | 4.07 | 4.44 | 5.37 | 4.53 | 8.95 | |
| EAA Fund Global Flex-Cap Equity | PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund Class A | 2.64 | 15.50 | 14.17 | 18.33 | 6.41 |
| PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund Class A | 2.64 | 15.50 | 14.17 | 18.33 | 6.41 | |
| PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund Class B | 2.74 | 16.08 | 14.81 | 18.95 | 8.13 | |
| EAA Fund Global Large-Cap Blend Equity | PSG Wealth Global Creator Fund of Funds Class D | 3.34 | 11.70 | 14.66 | 11.03 | 9.88 |
| PSG Wealth Global Creator Fund of Funds Class D | 3.34 | 11.70 | 14.66 | 11.03 | 9.88 | |
| EAA Fund USD Cautious Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (USD) Class D | 1.83 | 8.42 | 6.46 | 3.88 | 3.80 |
| PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF (USD) Class D | 1.83 | 8.42 | 6.46 | 3.88 | 3.80 | |
| EAA Fund USD Flexible Allocation | PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund Class A | 22.37 | 14.93 | 12.72 | 15.86 | 6.39 |
| PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund Class A | 22.37 | 14.93 | 12.72 | 15.86 | 6.39 | |
| PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund Class B | 23.84 | 15.46 | 13.24 | 16.28 | 7.02 | |
| PSG Investment Management Global Flexible Fund of Funds (Dollar) | 1.78 | 10.90 | 7.19 | 4.42 | 3.06 | |
| PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF (USD) Class D | 3.49 | 11.58 | 8.60 | 6.16 | 8.02 | |
| EAA Fund USD Moderate Allocation | PSG Wealth Global Moderate Fund of Funds Class D | 2.30 | 10.68 | 9.16 | 6.75 | 5.63 |
| PSG Wealth Global Moderate Fund of Funds Class D | 2.30 | 10.68 | 9.16 | 6.75 | 5.63 | |
Performance data on offshore funds is shown up to the last market close minus 2 days.
Some data may be delayed, the above table reflects the latest information available from Morningstar.
Please note performance reported during the first week of each month may be impacted by distributions. Distributions are fully accounted for by the second week of each month.
House view equity portfolios
| Fund display name | Performance –As at 2025/07/29 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year % | 3 year % | 5 year % | Inception % | |
| PSG Wealth Income Growth Equity Portfolio | 13.93 | 11.11 | 11.38 | 3.92 |
| PSG Wealth Offshore Equity Portfolio (USD) | 8.11 | 9.70 | 10.03 | 11.36 |
| PSG Wealth SA Equity Portfolio | 24.66 | 10.77 | 11.17 | 5.89 |
| PSG Wealth SA Property Equity Portfolio | 27.44 | 16.90 | 17.61 | 0.85 |
* PSG Wealth equity portfolio performance are shown gross of management fees, but net of brokerage and other trading costs.
The House view portfolios are bespoke solution portfolios and not part of the Collective Investment Schemes’ portfolios.
Recent investment ideas
South Africa’s largest retailer, Shoprite, remains a market leader with ongoing growth and expansion
- At current levels, the stock trades below historical price multiples and presents an upside to our intrinsic value. Shoprite is a high-quality SA retailer as evidenced by:
- Internal price inflation for the period averaged just 1.9%. This reflects Shoprite’s commitment to affordability and its ability to pass on cost savings to consumers, which should help with future volume growth.
- Shoprite’s consistent margin expansion, driven by pricing power and operational efficiency, underscores its ability to preserve profitability while maintaining affordability, solidifying its value-driven market leadership.
- Successful platforms like Sixty60 and Xtra Savings have boosted transaction values and customer loyalty, reinforcing margin resilience and evidencing management’s innovation.
- The group’s consistent rollout of new stores across various formats, without compromising operational efficiency or margin integrity, reinforces its ability to capture market share, drive top-line growth, and deliver long-term shareholder value.
- South Africa’s recent shift to lower interest rates and a subdued inflation environment creates a supportive backdrop for consumer-focused businesses like Shoprite.
In our last report on Naspers and Prosus (in January 2025), we discussed Naspers and Prosus half year FY2025 results.
- In our last report on Naspers and Prosus (in January 2025), we discussed Naspers and Prosus half year FY2025 results. We have since received the full year results as well as some acquisition activity, summarised below. At the beginning of the year Tencent was placed on a “Chinese military companies” list by the US which had a material impact on both Naspers and Prosus’s share prices in January but has since had a strong recovery. Below we summarise the last 6 months for the company:
- In May 2025, Prosus completed the acquisition of Despegar, a leading online travel agency in Latin America, for approximately $1.7 billion, at a 33% premium to the share price at the time. Despegar generated $774 million in revenue for FY24.
- In February 2025, Prosus announced it had made a cash offer of €4.1 billion for global food delivery company, Just Eat Takeaway.com, at a 63% premium to the share price in February. The acceptance of such has been fully recommended by Just Eat’s board and should conclude towards the end of 2025. The company generated $3.8 billion in sales in FY24.
- Prosus full year results had the following highlights:
- Full year revenue came in at $6.2 billion, a 21% increase for the year.
- Adjusted EBIT came in at $179 million, posting a positive full year number for the first time after reporting a loss of $118 million in 2024.
- Profitability was driven by Classifieds and Food Delivery with EBIT figures of $273 million and $218 million respectively.
- Free cash flow positive for the first time, excluding Tencent.
Sasol’s Capital Markets Day signals optimism for the company’s future.
- On 20 May 2025, Sasol held a Capital Markets Day, providing a comprehensive update on its corporate strategy, operational performance, emissions reduction roadmap, and financial framework. Some key highlights are:
- Sasol anticipates adjusted its EBITDA to rise from R60 billion to a range of between R64–R71 billion by FY28.
- Cost savings of R10–R15 billion (relative to inflation) are a major contributor to this EBITDA growth, which is targeted for achievement by FY28.
- The company maintains its net debt ceiling target below US$3 billion, reflecting a disciplined financial approach.
- Capital expenditure is set to be reduced by R15–R20 billion compared to previous guidance, underscoring Sasol’s focus on efficiency.
- The Chemicals segment is targeting an EBITDA margin of at least 15% by FY28, with positive cash flow before financing costs projected for FY25. This will result from operational streamlining, the closure or exit of underperforming assets, and a shift from volume-driven to value-driven strategies.
- For mining operations in South Africa, priorities include restoring Secunda production to 7.4 million tons per annum or higher and reducing the oil breakeven price to $50/bbl by FY28 (1H25: just below $60/bbl). Key initiatives include improving coal quality through destoning and X-ray sorting, implementing real-time coal quality testing, and delivering sustainable cost reductions of R8–R10 billion by FY28.
Corporate Actions
| Date | Company | Share code | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 July 2025 | Nampak Limited 6 Percent Cumulative Preference Shares | NPKP | Cash Dividend |
| 30 July 2025 | Nampak Limited 6.5 Percent Cumulative Preference Shares | NPP1 | Cash Dividend |
| 30 July 2025 | Trencor Limited | TRE | Cash Dividend |
The information above is to the best of our knowledge correct.
The Corporate Actions are updated weekly.
Fund performance
Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium-term to long-term investments. The value of participatory interests (units) may go down as well as up and past performance is not a guide to future performance. Collective Investment Schemes are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on request from PSG Collective Investments (RF) Limited. Commission and incentives may be paid, and if so, are included in the overall costs. Forward pricing is used. The Portfolios may be capped at any time in order for them to be managed in accordance with their mandate.
Performance is calculated for the portfolio and individual investor performance may differ as a result thereof. Different classes of participatory interest can apply to these portfolios and are subject to different fees, charges and possibly dividend withholding tax and will thus have differing performances. Annualised performances show longer term performance rescaled over a 12-month period. Individual performance may differ as a result of initial fees, the actual investment date, the date of reinvestment and dividend withholding tax. The portfolio is valued at 15h00 daily. Income distributions are net of any applicable taxes. Investment performance data is for illustrative purposes only. Actual performance figures are available on request. Always refer to the fund fact sheet (Minimum Disclosure Document) for full details, fees and risks of the fund.
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