SA consumer inflation rises to a 10-month peak as markets remain calm

South Africa’s consumer price inflation rose to 3.50% year-on-year in July 2025, its highest level in 10 months, driven by rising food and fuel costs. Nonetheless, inflation remains within the South African Reserve Bank’s 3%–6% target range, giving the central bank room to cut interest rates at three of its remaining policy meetings this year. On the stock market, the JSE All Share Index edged down 0.14% to 101 056 points, while the Top 40 Index also slipped roughly 0.14%, reflecting a modest investor pullback. The rand remained largely steady, trading at 17.67 at 20h23 SAST against the dollar, showing little reaction to the inflation figures as investors focused on upcoming cues from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and an international policy symposium likely to influence global interest rates.

In the US, equities fell on Wednesday as investor caution around future AI-driven returns weighed on technology stocks, while markets digested retail earnings and the Fed’s latest meeting minutes. The S&P 500 lost 0.40%, the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.80%, and the Dow remained largely flat.  The ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech companies extended losses for a second session amid concerns that many AI-focused firms remain unprofitable. Nvidia, Meta and Alphabet each fell more than 1%. Retail earnings were mixed: Target dropped 10% after appointing a new CEO despite beating forecasts, and Estée Lauder fell 4% on cautious guidance, while TJX rose 7% and Lowe’s added 3%. Walmart is scheduled to report on Thursday.

The US dollar index was largely unchanged, hovering around 98.2 points, after the Fed’s July meeting minutes showed that policymakers remain more focused on inflation than on labour market conditions. The Fed kept interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting, although two governors supported a reduction—the first dual dissent since 1993. Officials noted that pro-inflationary risks continue to outweigh employment concerns and highlighted that US tariffs could add to inflation with a delayed effect. Following recent soft payroll figures and weaker Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI readings, markets are now pricing in around two rate cuts for 2025. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell slightly below 4.30%, reflecting continued caution ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, which is expected to clarify the central bank’s approach to balancing inflation and labour market risks.

European equities ended mixed on Wednesday, weighed down by a weaker Wall Street session as investors continued to assess the global interest rate outlook and prospects for an end to the war in Ukraine. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 slipped 0.20% to 5 472, while the broader STOXX 600 edged up 0.30% to 559. Germany’s DAX underperformed its peers, closing 0.60% lower at 24 277, dragged down by weakness in industrial and defence stocks.

In London, the FTSE 100 gained 1.10%. Industrials were among the biggest laggards, with Siemens, Airbus, Schneider and Rolls-Royce falling between 2% and 3.50% following strong gains earlier in the week. By contrast, consumer defensive names outperformed across the bloc, with Danone, L’Oréal and AB InBev climbing more than 1%. On the monetary policy front, investors looked ahead to the release of minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting for clues on how policymakers may respond to the recent downward revision in payroll data and the uptick in producer prices.

Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday, reflecting a combination of global tech weakness and regional economic developments. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.51% to 42 888.55 points, while the Tokyo Stock Price Index (Topix) dropped 0.57%, pressured by weaker export data and concerns over the impact of US tariffs. In contrast, Chinese equities advanced, with the Shanghai Composite rising 1.04% to 3 766.21 and the Shenzhen Component up 0.88%, as investors favoured non-tech sectors following the People’s Bank of China’s decision to hold interest rates steady. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.18%.

On the commodities front, Brent crude rose 1.66% to trade at $66.88 per barrel. Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell sharply by 6.014 million barrels in the week to 15 August 2025, far exceeding market expectations of a 1.3 million-barrel drawdown, according to the EIA’s Petroleum Status Report. Precious metals also advanced, with gold up 0.89% to $3 344.59 per ounce, silver rising 1.17% and platinum gaining 2%.